Show an ad over header. AMP

Decisive meeting between U.S., Israel and UAE could lead to Israeli-Sudanese normalization

U.S., Emirati and Sudanese officials will hold a decisive meeting in Abu Dhabi on Sunday on a possible normalization agreement between Sudan and Israel, Sudanese sources told me.

Why it matters: If the U.S. and the UAE accommodate Sudan’s requests for economic aid, an announcement on a normalization agreement with Israel similar to the ones struck with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain could be made within days, sources briefed on the process tell me.


Details:

  • The White House National Security Council's senior director for the Gulf and North Africa, Gen. Miguel Correa, is expected to represent the U.S. at the meeting. Gen. Correa was involved in the efforts to draft the Israel-UAE agreement.
  • The UAE, which is hosting the meeting, will be represented by national security adviser Tahnoon Bin Zayed (TBZ), who is also in charge of the talks with Israel.
  • The Sudanese will be represented by members of the civilian and military branches of the government — mainly the chief of staff to Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and Minister of Justice Nasredeen Abdulbari, who is also a U.S. citizen.

According to Sudanese sources, the government of Sudan is asking for the following economic aid in return for a normalization deal with Israel:

  • Shipments of oil and wheat worth $1.2 billion in order to deal with a humanitarian crisis caused by devastating floods.
  • A grant of $2 billion to the Sudanese government's budget to deal with the economic crisis. The Sudanese are also ready to consider a loan for 25 years.
  • A commitment by the U.S. and the UAE to providing Sudan with economic aid over the next three years.

Between the lines: Israel is following Sunday’s meeting very closely. Since the meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the chairman of the Sudanese sovereignty council General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan last February in Uganda, both countries continued quiet talks on the possibility of normalization.

  • The issue of normalization between Sudan and Israel was raised last Tuesday in a meeting in Washington between Netanyahu and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Israel has been encouraging the Trump administration to adhere to Sudan’s request for economic aid as part of any normalization deal.  
  • In addition to economic aid, the Sudanese government wants the Trump administration to remove Sudan from the State Department's state sponsors of terrorism list. This issue is indirectly connected to the normalization deal with Israel. Pompeo supports delisting Sudan and set the end of October as a deadline for this move, according to U.S. officials.

But in order for this to happen, the following conditions must be met:

  • The Sudanese government needs to pay $300 million as compensation to the families of U.S. citizens killed in terror attacks against U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998 and against the USS Cole in 2000.
  • The U.S. Senate needs to pass a bipartisan bill spearheaded by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) that will give Sudan immunity from future lawsuits in the U.S. and reinstate Sudan’s status as a country that does not sponsor terrorism.
  • Pompeo is pressing both Republican and Democratic senators to support the bill and vote on it by mid-October. U.S. officials believe that a normalization agreement between Sudan and Israel will convince Congress to support such a bill.

The meeting in Abu Dhabi on Sunday will take place on the sidelines of the visit by al-Burhan to the UAE. He is expected to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed and discuss a possible normalization deal with Israel in return for U.S. and Emirati aid for Sudan.

The big picture: Al-Burhan is pushing for normalization with Israel and believe it will help Sudan get out of the economic and humanitarian crisis it's facing, Sudanese sources tell me.

  • Al-Burhan only represents the military faction of the government. The civilian faction and Prime Minister Hamdok had reservations about the move for a long time out of concern for domestic protests.
  • Sudanese sources told me that in recent days, Hamdok was convinced that normalization with Israel will serve Sudan’s interests and gave al-Burhan a green light to move forward if Sudan’s requests for economic aid are met.
  • Hamdok didn’t join al-Burhan on the trip, but sent his chief of staff and minister of justice to take part in the negotiations.

The White House and Emirati officials decline to comment on this story.

Tim Kaine, Susan Collins pitch Senate colleagues on censuring Donald Trump

Sens. Tim Kaine and Susan Collins are privately pitching their colleagues on a bipartisan resolution censuring former President Trump, three sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

Why it matters: Senators are looking for a way to condemn Trump on-the-record as it becomes increasingly unlikely Democrats will obtain the 17 Republican votes needed to gain a conviction in his second impeachment.

Keep reading... Show less

Anthony Coley to lead Justice Department public affairs

Judge Merrick Garland, President Biden’s nominee for attorney general, has tapped Anthony Coley, an Obama-era Treasury Department official, to serve as a senior adviser and lead public affairs at the Department of Justice, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: As the public face of the DOJ, Coley will help explain — and defend — the department's actions, from sensitive cases to prosecutorial decisions, including the investigation into Hunter Biden.

Keep reading... Show less

AP: Justice Dept. rescinds "zero tolerance" policy

President Biden's acting Attorney General Monty Wilkinson issued a memo on Tuesday to revoke the Trump administration's "zero tolerance" immigration policy, which separated thousands of migrant children from their families at the U.S.-Mexico border, AP first reported.

Driving the news: A recent report by Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz emphasized the internal chaos at the agency over the implementation of the policy, which resulted in 545 parents separated from their children as of October 2020.

Keep reading... Show less

Biden makes a down payment on racial equity with a series of executive orders

President Biden is making a down payment on racial equity in a series of executive orders dealing with everything from private prisons to housing discrimination, treatment of Asian Americans and relations with indigenous tribes.

The big picture: Police reform and voting rights legislation will take time to pass in Congress. But with the stroke of his pen, one week into the job Biden is taking steps within his power as he seeks to change the tone on racial justice from former President Trump.

Keep reading... Show less

Most Senate Republicans join Rand Paul effort to dismiss Trump's 2nd impeachment trial

Forty-five Senate Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, joined Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) on Tuesday in an effort to dismiss former President Trump's second impeachment trial.

Why it matters: The vote serves as a precursor to how senators will approach next month's impeachment trial. The House impeached Trump for a second time for "incitement of insurrection" following events from Jan 6. when a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol.

Keep reading... Show less

Texas judge temporarily halts Biden's 100-day deportation freeze

A federal judge in Texas has temporarily blocked the Biden administration's 100-day freeze on deporting unauthorized immigrants.

Why it matters: Biden has set an ambitious immigration agenda, but could face pushback from the courts.

Keep reading... Show less

Reddit is running Wall Street

Wall Street is locked in a battle of will between professional investors who live in Greenwich and amateur investors who congregate on Reddit. So far, the amateurs are winning, judging by increases in their chosen stocks, like GameStop and Bed, Bath & Beyond.

Axios Re:Cap goes deeper into what's really happening, the mechanics of stock "shorting" and what it means for the markets' future, with Axios chief financial correspondent Felix Salmon.

Biden holds first phone call with Putin, raises Navalny arrest

President Biden on Tuesday held his first call since taking office with Vladimir Putin, pressing the Russian president on the arrest of opposition leader Alexey Navalny and the Russia-linked hack on U.S. government agencies, AP reports.

The state of play: Biden also planned to raise arms control, bounties allegedly placed on U.S. troops in Afghanistan and the war in Ukraine, according to White House press secretary Jen Psaki, who said the call took place while she was delivering a press briefing. Psaki added that a full readout will be provided later Tuesday.

Keep reading... Show less

Insights

mail-copy

Get Goodhumans in your inbox

Most Read

More Stories