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Why new coronavirus stimulus talks are at a "dead end"

Senate Republicans last week tried and failed to pass a slimmed down stimulus bill that would have included new money for small businesses, schools and $300 in additional weekly unemployment benefits.

Driving the news: Negotiations are now at "a dead-end street,” Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts said following the bill's failure, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio said plainly, "Congress is not going to pass another COVID relief bill before the election." In fact, we're about two weeks away from a potential government shutdown.


Why it matters: Spending is decreasing, job gains are slowing and many small businesses warn that without more assistance from the government they will run out of cash before year-end and have to shut down for good.

How it happened: Not only has the stock market boomed, U.S. data have been improving notably since May. There have been millions of jobs added and V-shaped rebounds in manufacturing and services sector reports.

  • The Axios-Ipsos poll has shown little change among respondents' ability to pay their rent or mortgage and afford household goods in the past two months.
  • And the percentage of reported layoffs, furloughs and permanent job losses at the end of August was the lowest since mid-March — though it's only one percentage point below recent levels.

What it means: "Right now there’s not a lot of evidence we need [another stimulus bill] imminently," Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, tells Axios.

  • "It’s not just the stock market, it’s the data coming out every day — ISM, industrial production, housing, take your pick."
  • "If the data rolls over they’ll pass that thing in a heartbeat."

Yes, but: Economists warn the improving data mask a lingering deterioration of the economy. Things are better than they were in March and April but still far from where they were in 2019 or the beginning of the year.

  • The fact that more aid is not coming will be internalized by households that will pare their budgets and by state lawmakers who will begin laying off workers and cutting programs, Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, tells Axios.
  • "There's a lagged effect. It could unfold over weeks to months. But it's pretty clear that it’s going to be hard for the economy."

Between the lines: With new spending from Congress looking unlikely, there could be more pressure on the Fed to provide additional easing, and Wednesday's policy meeting becomes much more meaningful to the market.

Go deeper: Government shutdown looms over Congress

Susan Collins says Senate should postpone Supreme Court vote until after Election Day

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said in a statement Saturday that she believes the Senate should wait to vote to confirm a Supreme Court nominee to fill Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat until after the general election.

Why it matters: Collins will be a key senator in how this process plays out. As one of the most centrist Senate Republicans, whether or not the Senate confirms Trump's SCOTUS nominee could hinge on her vote.

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Pinpointing climate change's role in extreme weather

Climate scientists are increasingly able to use computer models to determine how climate change makes some extreme weather more likely.

Why it matters: Climate change's effects are arguably felt most directly through extreme events. Being able to directly attribute the role climate plays in natural catastrophes can help us better prepare for disasters to come, while driving home the need to tackle greenhouse gas emissions.

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Big Tech takes the climate change lead

The tech industry is playing a growing role in fighting climate change, from zero-carbon commitments to investments in startups and pushing for the use of data to encourage energy efficiency.

Why it matters: Big Tech is already dominating our economy, politics and culture. Its leadership in helping to address climate change — and reckon with its role in contributing to it — could have similarly transformative impacts.

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Lindsey Graham says he will vote for Ginsburg's replacement before next election

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Saturday said he plans to support a vote on President Trump's nominee to fill the vacancy left by Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died on Friday, before the election.

Why it matters: Graham in 2016 opposed confirming President Obama's Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland, because it was an election year.

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Schumer: "Nothing is off the table next year" if Senate GOP moves to fill Ginsburg's seat

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told fellow Democrats on a conference call Saturday that "nothing is off the table next year" if Senate Republicans move to fill Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's Supreme Court seat in the coming weeks.

What he's saying: “Let me be clear: if Leader McConnell and Senate Republicans move forward with this, then nothing is off the table for next year," Schumer said, according to a source on the call. "Nothing is off the table.”

ActBlue collects record-breaking $30 million in hours after Ginsburg's death

ActBlue, the Democratic donation-processing site, reported a record-breaking $30 million raised from 9 p.m. Friday to 9 a.m. Saturday in the aftermath of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, NPR writes and ActBlue confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters via the New York Times: "The unprecedented outpouring shows the power of a looming Supreme Court confirmation fight to motivate Democratic donors."

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Trump says Republicans have an "obligation" to fill Ginsburg's seat "without delay"

President Trump wrote in a tweet Saturday morning that Republicans have an "obligation" to fill Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat on the Supreme Court following her death Friday.

What he's saying: "We were put in this position of power and importance to make decisions for the people who so proudly elected us, the most important of which has long been considered to be the selection of United States Supreme Court Justices," the president said. "We have this obligation, without delay!"

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