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Why Democrats remain nervous about Biden's chances

In private, some top Democrats remain nervous about the presidential race, despite Joe Biden's lead in swing state after swing state — and strength in states that had looked out of reach (including Georgia, Ohio and Iowa).

Why it matters: The ghost of 2016, when most "experts" looked foolish, haunts Democrats, who see a big win in their data, but fear being blindsided again.


Tom Edsall, who works the political science beat for New York Times Opinion, is up with a smart piece, "Biden Is Not Out of the Woods."

  • The most interesting data was a massive surge in registration for working-class whites.
  • Edsall quotes a Democratic strategist's privately circulated newsletter as reporting that white, non-college, over-30 registrations in battleground states had recently "increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just six points."

Another key point: Pew Research Center polling shows what Edsall calls "a modest drop in the Democratic margin of support among Hispanic Catholics" and "modestly weakened support among Black women."

  • And, of course, operatives worry about hazards in properly returning mail-in ballots.

🐦 The bottom line ... Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon tweeted last night: "[T]here is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer."

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Biden: U.S. military mission in Afghanistan will end Aug. 31

The United States' military mission in Afghanistan will conclude on Aug. 31, President Biden announced Thursday during an update on the withdrawal from Afghanistan amid increasing instability and violence in the country.

Why it matters: Biden said his administration will start finding and transporting Afghan nationals who helped U.S. forces during the Afghanistan War to host countries while they wait for U.S. visas this month.

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Affirmative action on college campuses is endangered

Data: National Center for Education Statistics; Chart: Connor Rothschild/Axios

Affirmative action, which for 60 years has increased the number of students of color at American universities, is on the chopping block. A case accusing Harvard of discriminating against Asian applicants has made it to the Supreme Court, and the court could elect to get rid of the 60-year-old policy.

Why it matters: While that's an unlikely outcome, it could push colleges to come up with better ways of promoting diversity on campus rather than just looking at race, says Mitchell Chang, an education professor at UCLA.

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