Our thought bubble: It's going to be very hard to sell this package to the rest of Congress.
- Even with five Republican senators, it's still not the group of 10 GOP members they need to garner the 60 votes required to pass major legislation.
Driving the news: The proposal from a splinter group of the so-called G20 bloc of bipartisan senators focuses on "hard" infrastructure and doesn't touch on the more ambitious parts of Biden's package — the provisions outlined in the American Families Plan.
- It would cost $974 billion over five years, or $1.2 trillion if extrapolated over eight years. About $579 billion of the total would be new spending.
- The biggest sticking point remains how to pay for it. As of now, the plan would cover the cost of the entire bill without raising taxes.
- The group proposes paying for it through unspent coronavirus relief aid, public-private partnerships, indexing the gas tax to account for inflation and allowing states to borrow necessary money through a revolving loan fund.
- Biden has expressed resistance to several of those ideas, but he's also a former senator who knows how to cut deals.
The remaining challenge:
For Republicans: It's a very open question whether the Republican senators in this group (all considered moderates) represent the rest of their conference.
- Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) had the backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) when trying to negotiate her own agreement with Biden.
- McConnell has yet to say he'll support this new group's efforts. Without his blessing, most Republican senators won't go for it.
But, but, but: Agreeing to the deal would insulate Republicans from criticism they’d surely face if they just blocked such popular legislation.
- That's also a danger for progressives who might want to vote against it because it's not big enough for them or their Democratic constituencies.
For Democrats: Biden promised progressives a big, bold, once-in-a-generation infrastructure package that would bring about transformational change not only for roads, bridges and highways but also climate change, child care and education.
- This package doesn't do that, and the progressive wing of the party is already chafing to go the partisan route and pursue a reconciliation bill that would be far more ambitious.
- Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee who has long been ready to stop talking to the GOP and go it alone, said a reconciliation bill would include both Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan.
- That would create a combined price tag of nearly $4 trillion — which even more moderate Democrats tell us they would have a hard time backing.
What to watch: Even if this bipartisan group of 10 succeeds in striking a deal on the traditional infrastructure portion (Biden's Jobs Plan), Democrats insist they'll try to pass the rest (the Families Plan) via reconciliation.
- Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said this week that Democrats are working on a reconciliation bill as a backup plan in case the bipartisan negotiations fail.
- He added that he plans to move forward with an infrastructure bill in the Senate in July, whether or not a deal between the two sides is reached.
