With 102 days until Election Day, the blue wave threatening to swamp President Trump's re-election chances keeps getting bigger and bigger.
Why it matters: We all know that anything can happen. But right now, every measurable trend is going against Trump — and with each day that passes, it gets increasingly harder for him to claw his way back.
The Cook Political Report on Friday flipped Florida from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic," citing the state's spiraling coronavirus outbreak.
- That follows a Quinnipiac poll on Thursday that showed Joe Biden leading by 13 points in the Sunshine State. For context, Trump led Hillary Clinton by 3 points in the same poll in mid-July 2016.
Our thought bubble, from Axios White House editor Margaret Talev: Trump's re-election path has to go through Florida.
- Without it, he's done.
The tsunami flows down-ballot: Charlie Cook and his team now like Democrats' chances to reclaim the Senate, shifting races in Arizona, Georgia and Iowa in their favor this week.
- Cook also moved 20 House races toward Democrats.
- Dave Wasserman, its House editor, said he couldn't recall a similarly sized shift for one party.
The big picture: Trump's net approval rating (-15) has remained remarkably consistent throughout his presidency, highlighting the difficulty he faces in trying to quickly turn around public opinion.
- 538's Harry Enten noted on CNN this morning that, since 1940, incumbent presidents who were re-elected had an average net approval rating of +23.
- Those who lost had an average net approval rating of -14.
The bottom line: The pandemic isn't going anywhere. And no matter what the president wants, it's going to define everything from here on out.
- 102 days ago, the U.S. had 860,000 confirmed coronavirus cases (now 4 million), and Trump claimed "total" authority over ordering states to reopen.
- Think of everything that's happened since.