Add in planned executive policies and state-level efforts, and the U.S. will reach its pledge in April under the Paris agreement of a 50% cut by 2030.
Why it matters: The letter lays bare the high stakes of the proposed $3.5 trillion, Democrats-only budget reconciliation plan, which accounts for most of the emissions cuts in Schumer's analysis, and the bipartisan package.
- It's a clear acknowledgement that the Biden administration's ability to make good on the formal emissions pledge rests heavily steering major new investments and policies through Congress.
- That has global repercussions. If Biden officials can show the U.S. pledge isn't a paper tiger, it boosts the chances of successful outcomes at a critical U.N. climate summit this fall.
The big picture: The letter comes as Democrats and the White House are trying the politically tricky maneuver of moving two major and related packages on parallel tracks.
- One is the bipartisan infrastructure plan, which has various clean energy and climate measures, that already passed the Senate.
- The other is a $3.5 trillion spending and tax package of healthcare, social safety net and energy and climate provisions they hope to move on a party-line vote using the budget reconciliation process.
How it works: The emissions projections are based on a review of "best available data from a wide range of organizations that specialize in policy analysis," the letter states.
Per the letter and a short summary of the analysis, about 42% of the total emissions cuts through 2030 would come from two pillars of the reconciliation plan.
- One is a new system of payments to help utilities greatly speed up deployment of zero-carbon power, combined with fees for companies that don't hit their targets.
- The other is a package of new and expanded tax credits for various kinds of clean energy projects.
Elsewhere, new consumer electric vehicle incentives provide roughly 16% of the envisioned emissions reductions, and new fees on oil-and-gas industry methane emissions account for another 9%.
Go deeper: House Democrats pass $3.5 trillion budget resolution
