President Trump may have solidified his control over the Republican Party — even if he doesn't pull out a victory over Joe Biden — by expanding the GOP electorate and helping to reverse some 2016 Congressional losses.
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Jul. 08, 2020 12:00PM EST
What China's uneven economic recovery means for the U.S.
Adapted from Institute of International Finance; Chart: Axios Visuals
China and much of Southeast Asia look to be bouncing back strongly from the coronavirus pandemic as stock markets and much of the country's economic data are returning to pre-pandemic levels.
What's happening: "Our tracking points to a clear V-shaped recovery in China," economists at the Institute of International Finance said in a note to clients Tuesday, predicting the country's second-quarter growth will rise above 2% after its worst quarter on record in Q1.
- "The manufacturing recovery appears complete and exports also normalized."
By the numbers: Investors have responded by sending Chinese stocks skying — the CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed shares jumped as much as 5.7% on Monday, the biggest daily gain since February 2019 — thanks in no small part to urging from the Chinese Communist Party encouraging retail investors to buy stocks (subscription).
- And while U.S. shares retreated on Tuesday, the CSI 300 touched a new five-year high and rose again on Wednesday.
- The CSI 300 is up more than 15% in local currency terms year to date and over 18% since June 1.
Yes, but: While Chinese services sector data has rebounded, according to official and private sector data, IIF economists warn, "Consumption is still heavily disrupted. Retail sales are significantly below pre-COVID-19 levels and look U-shaped at best."
Why it matters: Many in the U.S. have looked to China as a model for an eventual U.S. rebound, but the details of China's recovery belie that hope.
- In addition to China's ability to contain its coronavirus outbreak much more quickly and effectively, manufacturing makes up nearly 30% of its economy, compared to around 10% for the U.S., according to the latest data from the World Bank.
- Services, driven by things like retail sales and restaurants, make up a little over half of China's GDP versus more than three-quarters of GDP for the United States.
Between the lines: China's manufacturing also has been heavily supported by government stimulus — IIF estimates fiscal stimulus could add up to 7% to 9% of GDP, or $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion — and the growth of medical supply sales as a result of the pandemic.
The big picture: The key to a U.S. economic rebound will be a sustained revival in services — but data show that even in countries that were hit early and quickly contained their outbreak, recovery has been slow and incomplete in that sector.
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Jan. 13, 2021 05:44PM EST
Qualcomm buying server chip startup Nuvia for $1.4 billion
Qualcomm said Wednesday it will pay $1.4 billion to buy Nuvia, a chip startup founded by former Apple employees.
Why it matters: The move gives Qualcomm fresh ideas for chip designs as the company faces intense competition from Intel, AMD and others.
Between the lines: Nuvia has a custom core based on ARM, which is in the process of being sold to Nvidia, a Qualcomm rival. Buying Nuvia gives Qualcomm more flexibility to move away from ARM, should it eventually do so for business or technical reasons.
- In its press release, Qualcomm included quotes from a who's who of the phone and computer business announcing their support for the deal, indicating it hopes to use the technology in a wide range of chips.
Details: Qualcomm said founders Gerard Williams III, Manu Gulati and John Bruno will join Qualcomm along with the rest of the company's staff.
- Nuvia, which has roughly 250 employees, has raised $293 million in funding, including a $240 million round last September.
Yes, but: Williams, who is Nuvia's CEO, is in the midst of a legal battle with Apple. Apple sued Williams in December 2019, claiming that he breached his contract with Apple.
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Apr. 18, 2021 09:01PM EST
Senate Democrats settling on 25% corporate tax rate
The universe of Democratic senators concerned about raising the corporate tax rate to 28% is broader than Sen. Joe Manchin, and the rate will likely land at 25%, parties close to the discussion tell Axios.
Why it matters: While increasing the rate from 21% to 25% would raise about $600 billion over 15 years, it would leave President Biden well short of paying for his proposed $2.25 trillion, eight-year infrastructure package.
- Biden’s plan to increase the rate U.S. multinationals pay on their foreign earnings from 10.5% to 21% is less controversial and stands a better chance of remaining intact in the final legislation. That would raise an additional $700 billion.
- But corporate lobbying groups are preparing for a long-term battle over both rates.
- The Business Roundtable launched an advertising campaign last week and released a survey of 178 CEOs discussing how the proposed changes would affect their company’s competitiveness.
The big picture: The White House hasn’t publicly backed away from the president's proposed 28% rate but indicated it’s willing to find a compromise to pay for his spending plans.
- Democrats close to the White House expect Biden will accept 25% and pocket it as a political win.
- President Trump lowered the rate from 35% to 21%.
Driving the news: A collection of 10 senators from both parties — the so-called Group of 20 — is working to find a compromise on what to include in an initial infrastructure package and how to pay for it.
- “If we come together in a bipartisan way to pass that $800 billion hard infrastructure bill that you were talking about, that I've been urging, then we show our people that we can solve their problems,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said on "Fox News Sunday."
- Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has crystalized the G-20’s challenge by breaking it down into three issues: scope, size and pay-fors.
- “It is much easier to come up with appropriate pay-fors and bipartisan agreement if we're talking about a more focused package that truly is centered on infrastructure,” she said last Thursday.
Between the lines: While Manchin (D-W.Va.) has made clear his preference for a 25% rate, he’s far from alone.
- Democrats who've privately hinted they may be uncomfortable with going to 28% include Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner of Virginia, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Jon Tester of Montana.
- The Democratic dynamic is similar to the one about increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour, which was ultimately rejected by eight Senate Democrats.
- Some of them talked about something closer to $11.
Go deeper: There’s similar sentiment in the House, where moderates also are opposed to increasing taxes too much, Axios had reported.
- "I think that 25% is fine," Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) said.
Be smart: Democrats view the debate about the corporate rate as a litmus test for Republican interest in bipartisanship during the Biden era.
- If they can find a middle ground, they hope to work on other issues.
- Many are skeptical, though, even as Republicans say infrastructure spending is badly needed.
- A failure to reach consensus here would only fuel calls to use budget reconciliation to ram through other spending plans.
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