Show an ad over header. AMP

Jobs market poised to reverse gains as coronavirus surges

Data: Department of Labor; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Nearly four months after the coronavirus pandemic began to rock the economy, the number of people filing claims for unemployment insurance because of COVID-19-related job losses is increasing.

By the numbers: Applicants for the newly created Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program have risen consistently since the week ending April 11 when the government first started reporting claims figures.


  • It is now hovering at around 1 million new claims a week, while the number of continued claims, or people approved for and receiving aid under the program, rose to 14.3 million for the week ending July 4.
  • Pandemic Unemployment Emergency Compensation — a separate program that provides additional benefits to individuals who previously collected state or federal unemployment compensation but exhausted those benefits — is rising toward 1 million weekly claims, with new claims touching more than 936,000 for the week ending June 27.

Why it matters: The increases in pandemic-specific unemployment claims started well before the recent surge of coronavirus infections.

  • That suggests the job losses were the result of firms laying off workers because of lost business rather than government-mandated closures or caution due to the virus.
  • That likely means a significant increase in claims is coming as more municipalities lock down to prevent further spread of the virus.

The big picture: A total of 32 million people were receiving unemployment benefits, according to the latest total from the Department of Labor.

  • But those numbers were two weeks behind in counting the number of people approved for traditional unemployment benefits and three weeks delayed for PUA and PUEC recipients.
  • Including traditional and PUA unemployment claims, another 2.4 million people filed first-time jobless claims for the week ending July 11.

Between the lines: Jobless claims are still more than double the worst weeks in U.S. history.

  • The previous record high was 695,000, set in 1982.
  • The U.S. has now seen 17 straight weeks of claims totaling over 1 million.

What's next: "The risk of a surprise drop in employment in July is rising, pointing to a rollercoaster recovery as the labor market starts to turn down again,” Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao told Yahoo Finance.

Of note: This week's unadjusted claims number shows an increase of almost 109,000 from the prior week, while the seasonally adjusted figure shows unemployment claims down 10,000 from the prior week's level.

  • Seasonal adjustments are typically used to smooth out data, but have caused significant changes in numbers and sometimes even turned employment losses into gains since the waves of mass job losses started in March.

Boris Johnson announces month-long COVID-19 lockdown in U.K.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday outlined his plan for the country's second coronavirus lockdown as the nation topped the 1 million case mark, per Johns Hopkins University data.

Details: Starting Thursday, people in England must stay at home, and bars and restaurants will close except for takeout. All non-essential retail will also be shuttered. Inter-mingling between households and outbound international travel or out-of-home boarding will be prohibited. The new measures will last through at least December 2.

Keep reading... Show less

Trump's legacy is shaped by his narrow interests

President Trump's policy legacy is as much defined by what he's ignored as by what he's involved himself in.

The big picture: Over the past four years, Trump has interested himself in only a slim slice of the government he leads. Outside of trade, immigration, a personal war against the "Deep State" and the hot foreign policy issue of the moment, Trump has left many of his Cabinet secretaries to work without interruption, let alone direction.

Keep reading... Show less

Ipsos poll: COVID trick-or-treat

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note ±3.3% margin of error for the total sample size; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

About half of Americans are worried that trick-or-treating will spread coronavirus in their communities, according to this week's installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

Why it matters: This may seem like more evidence that the pandemic is curbing our nation's cherished pastimes. But a closer look reveals something more nuanced about Americans' increased acceptance for risk around activities in which they want to participate.

Keep reading... Show less

Dunkin' Brands agrees to $11B Inspire Brands sale

Dunkin' Brands, operator of both Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin-Robbins, agreed on Friday to be taken private for nearly $11.3 billion, including debt, by Inspire Brands, a quick-serve restaurant platform sponsored by Roark Capital.

Why it matters: Buying Dunkin’ will more than double Inspire’s footprint, making it one of the biggest restaurant deals in the past 10 years. This could ultimately set up an IPO for Inspire, which already owns Arby's, Jimmy John's and Buffalo Wild Wings.

Keep reading... Show less

Federal judge halts Trump administration limit on TikTok

A federal judge on Friday issued an injunction preventing the Trump administration from imposing limits on the distribution of TikTok, Bloomberg reports. The injunction request came as part of a suit brought by creators who make a living on the video service.

Why it matters: The administration has been seeking to force a sale of, or block, the Chinese-owned service. It also moved to ban the service from operating in the U.S. as of Nov. 12, a move which was put on hold by Friday's injunction.

Keep reading... Show less

Podcast: How hospitals are prepping for the new COVID-19 surge

Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are surging, particularly in areas that had been largely spared in the spring. One big question now is if hospitals are better prepared for this new wave, including if they'll be able to continue providing elective services.

Axios Re:Cap digs into what hospitals have, and what they still need, with Lloyd Dean, CEO of CommonSpirit Health, one of America's largest operators of hospitals and health clinics.

Belgium imposes lockdown, citing "health emergency" due to influx of COVID-19 cases

Belgium is enforcing a strict lockdown starting Sunday amid rising coronavirus infections, hospital admissions and a surge of deaths, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced on Friday.

Why it matters: De Croo said the government saw no choice but to lock down "to ensure that our health care system does not collapse." Scientists and health officials said deaths have doubled every six days, per the Guardian.

Keep reading... Show less

First look: Reid Hoffman launches $1M ad urging election patience

Billionaire and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, one of Democrats' biggest donors, tells Axios he's launching a $1 milliondigital ad campaign in battleground states urging voters to be patient with election results and prepare for no winner to be known on Nov. 3, no matter what "some people" may prematurely declare via Twitter.

Driving the news: The three-minute ad, titled "We Count! A Patriotic Musical Extravaganza," features the voice of "The Big Bang Theory's" Jim Parsons and Broadway star Barrett Doss. The spot will appear on Facebook targeting voters in the swing states of Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Keep reading... Show less

Insights

mail-copy

Get Goodhumans in your inbox

Most Read

More Stories