Show an ad over header. AMP

I am the FIRST

Former Bill Clinton advisor Doug Sosnik outlines headwinds Dems face in 2022

Graphic: Doug Sosnik

Doug Sosnik— senior adviser to the Brunswick Group, and White House political director for President Bill Clinton — is out with a new deck, shown first to Axios AM readers, warning his party how hard it'll be to hang onto its House and Senate majorities in next year's midterms.

The bottom line: "With only two exceptions (1998 and 2002), the party out of power has picked up seats in every midterm election since World War II," Sosnik writes.

  • The last five presidents have lost Senate and House majorities.

Despite President Biden's strong first six months in office, "there are some signs that his support is beginning to soften," Sosnik writes.

  • Likely driven by fallout from the Delta variant, an ABC/Ipsos poll released July 25 found pessimism about the country's direction had risen 19 points since a May 2 poll (from 36% pessimistic to 55%).
  • "Crime is also on the rise and there are indications that the Republicans are making inroads with voters on their cultural war against the Democrats," Sosnik wrote.

Sosnik's note of hope for his party: Rely on Republican unpopularity.

  • He cites a Quinnipiac Poll of 1,290 U.S. adults (conducted by phone July 27-Aug. 2; margin of error: ±2.7) that found a 61% unfavorable view of Republicans in Congress. (It's 52% for Democrats.)
  • After record turnout in 2018 and 2020, the '22 midterms will likely hinge on which party can turn out their own voters.

Crazy stats, showing how few swing states/districts there are in polarized America:

  • "Ninety-four out of 100 Senators are of the same party as the Presidential candidate who carried their state in 2020."
  • "In the House 419 out of 435 members (96%) are of the same party as the Presidential candidate who carried their district in 2020."

Go deeper:

Why the startup world needs to ditch "unicorns" for "dragons"

When Aileen Lee originally coined the term "unicorn" in late 2013, she was describing the 39 "U.S.-based software companies started since 2003 and valued at over $1 billion by public or private market investors."

Flashback: It got redefined in early 2015 by yours truly and Erin Griffith, in a cover story for Fortune, as any privately-held startup valued at $1 billion or more. At the time, we counted 80 of them.

Keep reading... Show less

Scoop: Facebook's new moves to lower News Feed's political volume

Facebook plans to announce that it will de-emphasize political posts and current events content in the News Feed based on negative user feedback, Axios has learned. It also plans to expand tests to limit the amount of political content that people see in their News Feeds to more countries outside of the U.S.

Why it matters: The changes could reduce traffic to some news publishers, particularly companies that post a lot of political content.

Keep reading... Show less

Scoop: Amazon quietly getting into live audio business

Amazon is investing heavily in a new live audio feature that's similar to other live audio offerings like Clubhouse, Twitter Spaces and Spotify's new live audio platform, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: As with Amazon's efforts in podcasting and music subscriptions, the company sees live audio as a way to bolster the types of content it can offer through its voice assistant, Alexa, and its smart speaker products.

Keep reading... Show less

Hurricane Ida exposes America's precarious energy infrastructure

The powerful hurricane that plunged New Orleans into darkness for what could be weeks is the latest sign that U.S. power systems are not ready for a warmer, more volatile world.

The big picture: “Our current infrastructure is not adequate when it comes to these kinds of weather extremes,” Joshua Rhodes, a University of Texas energy expert, tells Axios.

Keep reading... Show less

"We must go further": 70% of adults in European Union are fully vaccinated

About 70% of adults in the European Union are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said Tuesday.

Why it matters: The milestone makes the E.U. one of the world's leaders in inoculations, after an initially lagging vaccine campaign, the New York Times notes.

Keep reading... Show less

What Elizabeth Holmes jurors will be asked ahead of fraud trial

Jury selection begins today in USA v. Elizabeth Holmes, with the actual jury trial to get underway on Sept. 8.

Why it matters: Theranos was the biggest fraud in Silicon Valley history, putting both hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of patients' health at risk.

Keep reading... Show less



Get Goodhumans in your inbox

Most Read

More Stories