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May. 12, 2021 09:32PM EST
Emerging from pandemic lockdown is shaping up to be pricey
Emerging from pandemic lockdown is shaping up to be pricey. Traveling, eating out and even refreshing your wardrobe costs more, per April inflation data out today.
Why it matters: The economy is reopening and suddenly Americans want in on the activities they've gone a year without. The data shows how much that sudden demand has helped push prices higher — at least for now.
Catch up quick: Year-over-year prices rose 4.2% — the steepest climb since 2008, Axios' Hope King reports. It's coming off the weaker readings from last year when the pandemic hit.
- On a monthly basis, the index rose 0.8%, much higher than the 0.2% economists expected.
- A historic surge in used car and truck prices accounted for more than a third of the increase: Prices last month jumped the most (+10%) in the index's 68-year history, thanks to the chip shortage that's zapped car supply.
Other categories with "unprecedented" monthly increases, per Barclays: lodging away from home (+8%) and airline fares (+10%).
- The apparel index — clothes, shoes, jewelry — rose 0.3%, its first bump since January. Food away from home continued to rise last month, but so did food at home.
- The surge is "unlikely to be sustained," says Michael Gapen, Barclays' chief economist.
The big question critical to the timeline for fuller economic recovery is how long the higher prices spurred by more demand — or higher input costs caused by a growing list of shortages passed along to consumers — stick around.
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Jun. 10, 2021 09:49AM EST
Why infrastructure talks are setting climate advocates up for an anxious summer
Infrastructure talks between the White House and Congress have entered a phase that's making climate advocates extremely nervous.
Why it matters: Environmental groups and even some Democratic lawmakers are increasingly vocal with their fears that the White House will jettison central components of President Biden's climate plan during the talks, which could cause the U.S. to fall short of its new emissions targets.
Driving the news: The anxiety burst into the open following a statement that Biden's national climate adviser Gina McCarthy made to Politico on Tuesday, which pointed to the Clean Electricity Standard (CES) as one of the policies that might fall short.
- "While every piece like a clean electricity standard may not end [up] in the final version, we know that it is necessary, we know that the utilities want it, we are going to fight like crazy to make sure that it's in there," McCarthy said.
- "And then we're going to be open to a range of other investment strategies."
Zoom in: Biden's proposed CES would mandate that electric utilities generate 80% of their electricity from zero-carbon sources by 2030, with that figure hitting 100% by 2035.
- To backers of the policy, the CES is the most important policy in Biden's climate agenda. And some utilities are in favor of it.
- Although it's with some asterisks, the Edison Electric Institute, an investor-owned utility association, supports it as well.
- Proponents say a CES would have a ripple effect throughout the economy, making electric vehicles cleaner by connecting them to a renewable grid, for example.
The details: Biden has also proposed huge clean energy-related investments that advocates want to survive, but let's look at the CES...
- It would be difficult to accomplish Biden's ambitious emissions reduction targets without the CES, according to Leah Stokes, a political science professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara. Stokes sits on the advisory board of Evergreen Action, a group that supports the CES.
- "If you want to do 50% by 2030, you have to make progress in the electric power sector. The electric power sector is the most important sector for decarbonization. It's the first linchpin," Stokes told Axios, referring to the administration's overall climate goal of cutting emissions by 50 to 52% below 2005 levels by 2030.
- "It enables decarbonization in buildings, transportation, parts of heavy industry, it could enable up to potentially 75% economy-wide emissions reductions in carbon," she added.
The big picture: It's not just activists who are getting nervous watching the legislative clock tick down. Senate Democrats are increasingly staking their ground on climate, too.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, a stalwart climate advocate, has taken to Twitter to vent his concerns about watered down climate provisions.
I tweeted earlier this week about climate failure. Well, I’m still nervous. We must get Senate Dems unified on climate on a real reconciliation bill, lest we get sucked into “bipartisanship” mud where we fail on climate.
— Sheldon Whitehouse (@SenWhitehouse) June 9, 2021
- So have Democratic Sens. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico, Brian Schatz of Hawaii, Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Ed Markey of Massachusetts.(McCarthy sent a clarifying tweet of her own Wednesday.)
What we're watching: How any infrastructure bill or bills balances the thorny politics on Capitol Hill with the stark math of climate change will be one of the key stories to watch this summer.
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Jun. 25, 2021 02:10PM EST
Biden's infrastructure deal gives no clarity on corporate or individual tax rates
President Biden yesterday announced "we have a deal" on an infrastructure bill, while surrounded by a bipartisan group of senators in the White House driveway.
Between the lines: No they don't. Unless you want to make the word "deal" as squishy as the word "infrastructure" has become.
Why it matters: There is still no clarity on corporate or individual tax rates, including for income already earned in 2021.
State of play: Yesterday's agreement primarily focuses on new spending for physical infrastructure, including broadband. The IRS would get extra resources to close the so-called "tax gap," but there aren't any rate hikes. Carried interest is not addressed in the information disclosed so far.
Wait, that sounds like a deal: Biden says he wants to dance a legislative two-step. Get this $1.2 trillion infrastructure package through with GOP support, but only if he can also get a separate bill passed via reconciliation. Which may be like saying I came to an agreement with the Lamborghini dealer, so long as I can get one other thing done first.
- Indeed, some Senate Republicans are already saying they won't be held hostage to such an arrangement, with Lindsay Graham calling it a "deal breaker."
Timing: Congress is likely to work through the August recess and into the fall, per Axios' Hans Nichols. And with each passing day, the prospective of retroactive taxes becomes more complicated. Same goes for investors seeking to make decisions related to the prospective infrastructure spend.
The bottom line: Infrastructure Week may never end.
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Jul. 08, 2021 06:22PM EST
Biden: U.S. military mission in Afghanistan will end Aug. 31
The United States' military mission in Afghanistan will conclude on Aug. 31, President Biden announced Thursday during an update on the withdrawal from Afghanistan amid increasing instability and violence in the country.
Why it matters: Biden said his administration will start finding and transporting Afghan nationals who helped U.S. forces during the Afghanistan War to host countries while they wait for U.S. visas this month.
What he's saying: "I will not send more to Afghanistan with no expectation of achieving a different outcome," Biden said.
The U.S. has almost completed its military withdrawal from Afghanistan, though the departure has coincided with large territorial gains by the Taliban and a sharp increase in violence.
- The U.S. intelligence community has warned that the Afghan government could collapse as soon as next year as the Taliban's battlefield offensive grows.
- Biden's goal was to remove all U.S. forces from the country by Sept. 11.
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