- President Trump won Florida by more than 3 percentage points in 2020, up from a narrow one-point margin in 2016. He did so, in part, by accusing Democrats of being soft on socialism.
- Murphy, who fled Communist Vietnam as a child, calls herself a “proud capitalist” and has warned Democrats about embracing socialism. She knocked off a longtime GOP House incumbent in 2016 at age 38.
- Murphy has been on a “listening tour” across the state as she explains her life journey.
- “Rep. Murphy has not made a decision on whether to run for the U.S. Senate,” said Lauren Calmet, a campaign spokesperson.
Between the lines: With Murphy working to appeal to Florida voters statewide, she may be less inclined to support President Biden’s proposed tax increases on corporations and capital gains — making House passage more difficult.
- Biden won her Orlando-area district by about 10 points in 2020, and while the lines may be redrawn this year through congressional redistricting, the general area leans Democratic.
The big picture: Eighteen months before the election, both parties are looking for candidates who can appeal to swing voters in an unknown campaign climate.
- The atmospherics for the midterm races will hang on everything from Biden’s approval ratings to the level of Donald Trump’s determination to re-litigate the 2020 presidential election.
- While the Senate is tied at 50-50, Republicans are defending more seats than Democrats, giving Democrats an opportunity to increase their majority — a rarity for the party controlling the presidency at the midterms.
- In the House, the Democrat's five-seat margin could be more difficult to maintain, especially with redistricting giving Republican-leaning states additional seats.
- An Axios chart visualizes the dynamic.
Florida will be center stage in 2022 and a petri dish of presidential ambitions.
- Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is also up for reelection, with Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist already announcing a challenge and Rep. Val Demings mulling her own.
- While Rubio ran for president in 2016, DeSantis could make his own bid for the White House in 2024, assuming he wins reelection.
- Florida Sen. Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, also has hinted at presidential aspirations.
The bottom line: In 2022, Florida may be less of a battleground and more of a proving ground for Democratic strategies about how to win Trump supporters.
