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Coronavirus cases are falling, but don't get too comfortable

Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Danielle Alberti, Sara Wise/Axios

America's coronavirus outbreak is slowing down after a summer of explosive growth.

By the numbers: The U.S. is averaging roughly 52,000 new cases per day — still a lot of cases, but about 10.5% fewer than it was averaging last week.


Where it stands: New cases slowed over the past week in 21 states, including Arizona, Florida, Texas and the Southern states that experienced dramatic outbreaks in June and July.

  • Details: Each week, Axios tracks the change in new cases in each state. We use a seven-day average to minimize disruptions from inconsistencies in states’ reporting.

The big picture: Infections skyrocketed over the summer, and this week’s improvements aren’t enough to offset that damage. States will have to keep this downward trend going for a long time before they can consider their outbreaks to be well controlled.

The catch: Testing is also down across the U.S., by about 4.5%.

  • Tighter limits on testing may help reduce the long turnaround times — often close to two weeks — that had made testing significantly less useful.
  • But it could also mean that some infected people will slip through the cracks, potentially infecting others before they begin to feel sick.

The bottom line: Progress has to start somewhere, and these numbers are encouraging. But the U.S. still has a very big coronavirus outbreak and a flawed, incomplete plan of attack to fight it.

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Trump and "the 'suburban housewife'"

President Trump cast an outdated vision of "the 'suburban housewife'" as he swiped this week at Joe Biden's newly minted running mate Kamala Harris — building on his months-long play to drive a wedge through battleground-state suburbs by reframing white voters' expectations.

The big picture: As he struggles to find an attack that will stick against the Biden campaign, Trump for a while now has been stoking fears of lawless cities and an end to what he's called the “Suburban Lifestyle Dream.” It’s a playbook from the ‘70s and ‘80s — but the suburbs have changed a lot since then.

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Axios-Ipsos poll: The coronavirus wakeup call

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note: ±3.1% margin of error for November poll, ±3.3% for October; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The nationwide surge in coronavirus infections is prompting someAmericans to take high-risk behaviors more seriously, according to the latest installment of the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

Why it matters: Our latest survey shows that more people — and more Republicans, in particular — are attuned to the risks of indoor activities. That’s a positive sign, if the U.S. has any hope of getting this latest outbreak under control.

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Investigation identifies Russian intelligence officers who trailed Navalny before poisoning

An undercover team working for Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) followed opposition leader Alexei Navalny on more than 30 trips to and from Moscow since 2017 before he was poisoned in August, according to a bombshell investigation led by Bellingcat.

Why it matters: The Kremlin has denied having any role in the poisoning of Navalny, who is one of the most prominent domestic critics of President Vladimir Putin. But an analysis of "voluminous telecom and travel data" by Bellingcat suggests the poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok “was mandated at the highest echelons of the Kremlin."

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Big Tech is outsourcing its hardest content moderation decisions

Faced with the increasingly daunting task of consistent content moderation at scale, Big Tech companies are tossing their hardest decisions to outsiders, hoping to deflect some of the pressure they face for how they govern their platforms.

Why it matters: Every policy change, enforcement action or lack thereof prompts accusations that platforms like Facebook and Twitter are making politically motivated decisions to either be too lax or too harsh. Ceding responsibility to others outside the company may be the future of content moderation if it works.

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