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Congress' fight over the next coronavirus stimulus isn't ending soon

The fight in Congress over the next round of coronavirus relief legislation is shaping up to be a long one, and that's bad news for the economy and the stock market.

Why it matters: Assistance from the government and the Fed has been an integral part of the stock market's rally since March 23.


The big picture: And, with upwards of 32 million people receiving unemployment benefits and record bankruptcies and business closures expected (as well as a possible wave of evictions from newly unemployed renters), the latest fight on Capitol Hill carries significant weight.

What's happening: The rebound and relative calm in financial markets have seemingly unraveled the spirit of unity and urgency that pushed through the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in March.

  • The House, Senate and White House remain far apart on a final bill that was supposed to be put to a vote before the end of this week, Axios' Alayna Treene and Marisa Fernandez reported Tuesday.

Between the lines: “It’s a mess. I can’t figure out what this bill’s about," Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said yesterday.

  • "We have no idea what the final bill will be, and we’ll be the last to know,” Hawley added, suggesting the White House, not Senate leadership, would be negotiating with House Democrats.

What we're hearing: The U.S. economy is "still in a really bad place," Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, tells Axios.

  • "The CARES Act was written and designed for us to be back on our feet in July. That was a mistake, to think that the world would be better. It is not and now [Congress] needs to do more and they need to do a lot more."
  • $4 trillion in aid is closer to what's needed than the Senate's $1 trillion proposal, she says.

By the numbers: The extra $600 in weekly unemployment insurance benefits that effectively expired Saturday has been called the most effective part of the CARES Act as it helped maintain Americans' income and spending despite a tsunami of job losses.

  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis found the enhanced benefits increased incomes by $842 billion in May, on an annual basis.

The last word: "There’s plenty of evidence that economic recovery has stalled, and may have taken a step backward," Michael R. Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in a Bloomberg op-ed Monday.

  • "The alternative to additional recovery measures isn’t just less federal spending. It is also greater and deeper damage to workers, households and the economy overall."

Less travel is causing the NBA to see better basketball

In addition to keeping out the coronavirus, the NBA bubble has also delivered a stellar on-court product, with crisp, entertaining play night in and night out.

Why it matters: General managers, athletic trainers and league officials believe the lack of travel is a driving force behind the high quality of play — an observation that could lead to scheduling changes for next season and beyond.

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Senate Republicans release report on Biden-Ukraine investigation with rehashed information

Senate Republicans, led by Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), on Wednesday released an interim report on their probe into Joe Biden and his son's dealings in Ukraine.

Why it matters: The report's rushed release ahead of the presidential election is certainly timed to damage Biden, amplifying bipartisan concern that the investigation was meant to target the former vice president's electoral chances.

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The high-wage jobs aren't coming back

Reproduced from Indeed; Chart: Axios Visuals

The pandemic has caught up with high-wage jobs.

The big picture: Early on, the pandemic walloped hiring across the wage spectrum and in every sector. Now, states have opened up, and the lower-wage retail and restaurant jobs have slowly come back — but higher-paying jobs are lagging behind.

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The FDA plans to toughen coronavirus vaccine standards

The Food and Drug Administration plans to toughen the requirements for a coronavirus vaccine emergency authorization, which would make it more difficult for one to be ready by the election, the Washington Post reported Tuesday.

Why it matters: Public skepticism of an eventual vaccine keeps increasing as President Trump keeps making promises that are at odds with members of his own administration.

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Wall Street fears meltdown over election and Supreme Court

The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and President Trump's vow to name her replacement to the Supreme Court before November's election are amplifying Wall Street's worries about major volatility and market losses ahead of and even after the election.

The big picture: The 2020 election is the most expensive event risk on record, per Bloomberg — with insurance bets on implied volatility six times their normal level, according to JPMorgan analysts. And it could take days or even weeks to count the record number of mail-in ballots and declare a winner.

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Election clues to the country level

Ipsos and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics are out with an interactive U.S. map that goes down to the county level to track changes in public sentiment that could decide the presidential election.

How it works: The 2020 Political Atlas tracks President Trump's approval ratings, interest around the coronavirus, what's dominating social media and other measures, with polling updated daily — enhancing UVA's "Crystal Ball."

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Trump pushes to expand ban against anti-racism training to federal contractors

President Trump announced late Tuesday that the White House attempt to halt federal agencies' anti-racism training would be expanded to block federal contractors from "promoting radical ideologies that divide Americans by race or sex."

Why it matters: The executive order appears to give the government the ability to cancel contracts if anti-racist or diversity trainings focused on sexual identity or gender are organized. The memo applies to executive departments and agencies, the U.S. military, federal contractors and federal grant recipients.

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GoodRx prices IPO at $33 per share, valued at $12.7 billion

GoodRx, a price comparison app for prescription drugs at local pharmacies, on Tuesday raised $1.14 billion in its IPO, Axios has learned.

By the numbers: GoodRx priced its shares at $33 a piece, above its $24-$28 per share offering range, which will give it an initial market cap of around $12.7 billion.

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