What to watch: Three big policy issues — infrastructure, vehicle emissions and self-driving car technology — will influence the industry's direction in the coming years, making the candidates' positions on each critically important.
Infrastructure: Both candidates promote big infrastructure spending to rebuild roads and bridges; expand 5G and rural broadband, and create jobs.
- President Trump has been touting a $2 trillion infrastructure plan throughout his presidency but it hasn't progressed, mostly because of disagreements about how to fund it.
- Biden's $1.3 trillion infrastructure proposal is tilted toward his clean energy agenda and would include strengthening the electrical grid and building 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations by 2030.
- No matter who wins, the next president will have to work with Congress on a long-term fix for the nearly insolvent Highway Trust Fund, potentially raising the federal gas tax or creating a new usage tax based on vehicle miles traveled.
Emissions and fuel economy: This is where the biggest policy differences exist between the candidates.
- The anti-regulatory Trump rewrote vehicle emissions standards through 2026 to make them "more achievable" than the strict targets set by the Obama administration (though he did endorse zero-emission EVs during a recent debate).
- Trump also revoked California's Clean Air Act waiver that allowed the state to regulate its own tailpipe emissions, prompting a federal court challenge.
- Biden's plan includes a huge commitment to electric vehicles, expanding consumer incentives and filling government fleets with EVs.
- If Biden is elected, he'd likely restore the California waiver and abandon the legal fight, which could help reunite automakers caught in the crossfire.
- The next administration will also have to take up fuel economy and emissions rules for beyond 2026, with Biden likely to set far more aggressive targets than Trump.
Autonomous vehicles: It's not clear how either candidate feels about self-driving cars, although Axios reported last year that Trump thinks they're "crazy."
- Under his administration, the Department of Transportation has taken a hands-off approach to AV regulation, providing voluntary guidance to AV tech companies but leaving it up to states to set their own rules for testing and deployment.
- However, the DOT is weighing a rule that would lift regulatory barriers for cars without a steering wheel and pedals.
- Biden hasn't addressed whether there should be a federal AV policy.
- It's on Congress' agenda, though — House lawmakers told Automotive News they'll renew efforts to pass an AV bill starting in January, regardless of who is elected president.
Yes, but: The most important policy that could help the auto industry — and the overall economy — are those that get the coronavirus pandemic under control.
