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Aug. 12, 2021 09:45AM EST
The micropayments mirage
Micropayments — the decades-old vision of a new way to support creators and businesses online — remain a dream in the U.S., despite 25 years of digital business innovation.
Why it matters: After all this time, the dominant revenue models of the internet — subscriptions and advertising — are exactly the same as they were in the pre-digital era.
The big picture: Tech thinkers have long predicted the development of thriving creative ecosystems supported by customers paying tiny amounts automatically as they read, viewed and listened to content online.
For a long time, the chief hurdles blocking such a micropayments system were technical.
- The cost of processing and tracking tiny payments (on the order of cents or fractions of cents rather than dollars) for tiny acts of consumption (like reading a short article or watching a short video) would cost more than the payment itself — particularly in the U.S., with its high-margin credit-card-based payment systems.
- But the cost of processing and data storage has now dropped to the point where transaction costs aren't a blocker, and non-credit card payments have begun taking root even in the U.S.
Another longstanding problem was psychological: Consumers hate the idea of a "running meter" and prefer to pay a lump sum for an all-you-can-eat plan.
- But today's interface designers and data-driven marketers could easily devise a system that didn't nag you but just let you fill a wallet on a schedule and then ignore it.
The deeper reason we don't have micropayments sits on the producers' side, not the consumers.
- Micropayments really are "micro,"it turns out, even when you start adding them up — so much so that they're barely worth the effort.
- The theory behind micropayments promises the creation of a robust middle class of creators online — but there isn't a single field test that shows such a scenario playing out.
Every micropayment-style platform running today shows that they're usually a bad deal for all but the most popular and successful creators.
- Spotify, whose business is basically built around divvying up subscription fees into micropayments to musical artists, is notorious for how very little it pays out.
- Listeners love it, while artists — except for a handful who sit at the head of the long tail — are even worse off than they were when they were hustling CDs and records and getting ripped off by record companies.
- Medium, which fills up a pot with monthly subscriptions and then divides some of the fees among writers based on traffic and reading time, has seen a similarly lopsided distribution of contributors' income.
Between the lines: The "creator economy" that's emerging to support videomakers, streamers, influencers on social networks, authors of newsletters, hosts of podcasts and other creative entrepreneurs online is largely built around subscriptions (or, in the case of services like Patreon, recurring subscription-like payments) rather than fees for access to specific content.
Subscriptions are more familiar than micropayments, and they have one big advantage: They create a direct relationship between content's creators and its consumers.
- Both publishers and individual creators have learned to cherish that relationship, since it gives them some protection from the whims of platform owners.
What's next: If a popular micropayments system that provides solid income for a broad range of contributors ever does arrive, look for it to emerge from the public sector or nonprofits rather than the startup world.
- Startups are always going to try to build "moats" — i.e., seek competitive advantages — so they can deliver big returns to investors. But a universal micropayments system would have to be open and neutral, letting every creator or publisher compete evenly for the public's nickels and dimes.
- The system, in other words, would need to be like the protocols that underly the web itself, rather than the giant companies that grew on that foundation.
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Nov. 28, 2020 12:00PM EST
The unicorn stampede is coming
Airbnb and DoorDash plan to go public in the next few weeks, capping off a very busy year for IPOs.
What's next: You ain't seen nothing yet.
- Other companies expected to complete IPOs before Christmas include Affirm, Roblox and Wish.
State of play: There are over 500 "unicorns," or upstart companies that are valued at $1 billion or more by venture capitalists. More than half of those are based in the U.S., and around two dozen are valued at more than $5 billion.
- Among some of the better known names are ByteDance (owner of TikTok), SpaceX, Instacart, Epic Games (maker of Fortnite), Coinbase and Stripe.
- Then there are the lesser-known cloud software companies seeking to become the next DataDog or Snowflake — valued at a combined $4.6 billion entering 2020, now trading with combined market cap of $130 billion.
"The real story of 2020 is that it's just the preview for 2021, especially if there's a vaccine and the economy roars back," a tech IPO banker tells Axios.
- Another banker, this one based in San Francisco, adds that he regularly participates in multiple "bake-offs" on the same day for large tech IPOs.
There's also been a recent boom in special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), which represent another way for startups to go public — including those that might not be ready to do a traditional IPO, like many of the uncommercialized electric vehicle makers.
- Most of the SPACs formed in 2020 will seek out targets in 2021.
The bottom line: There used to be only a handful of unicorn IPOs per year, due to a limited pipeline, making each one a major Wall Street event. Those days are over.
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Sep. 01, 2020 04:56PM EST
Justice Department issues new rules on FBI surveillance of political campaigns
The Justice Department on Tuesday announced a series of reforms to ensure oversight and accountability over the FBI's process for applying for warrants to conduct surveillance on elected officials and political campaigns.
The big picture: The changes come months after the DOJ inspector general flagged "significant inaccuracies and omissions" in Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) applications used for 2016 Trump campaign official Carter Page during the FBI's Russia investigation.
- Allies of President Trump have pointed to the abuses to further allegations that the Russia probe was a politically motivated hit job, but the inspector general did not find evidence of political bias.
- A former FBI lawyer pleaded guilty last month to altering an email later used to obtain a warrant on Page, who was never charged with wrongdoing. U.S. Attorney John Durham is conducting a broader investigation into the origins of the Russia probe.
Details: FBI agents will be required to get permission from the attorney general to surveil elected officials, declared candidates and their staff before submitting applications to FISA courts, which decide whether to grant the bureau permission to conduct wiretaps, according to a memo issued by Barr.
- FBI personnel must review the applications "for accuracy and completeness" and submit the reviews to top DOJ officials, including the attorney general.
- The rules also require that the FBI consider briefing an elected official or member of a campaign that they are being targeted by foreign actors before seeking a wiretap warrant.
- In addition, wiretap warrants will be limited to 60 days, and FBI officials must brief the FISA courts every 30 days on the results of the surveillance.
Another memo issued by Barr authorizes a new Office of Internal Auditing at the FBI "to overcome a gap in auditing capability" at the bureau. The bureau will also be required to "perform robust auditing functions" of its compliance with its own procedures.
What they're saying: "FISA is a critical tool to ensuring the safety and security of Americans, particularly when it comes to fighting terrorism," Barr said in a statement.
- "However, the American people must have confidence that the United States Government will exercise its surveillance authorities in a manner that protects the civil liberties of Americans, avoids interference in the political process, and complies with the Constitution and laws of the United States."
- "What happened to the Trump presidential campaign and his subsequent Administration after the President was duly elected by the American people must never happen again."
FBI Director Christopher Wray added: "Since the Inspector General’s Crossfire Hurricane report was issued last December, I have made clear that it describes conduct that was unacceptable and unrepresentative of the FBI as an organization."
- "FISA is an indispensable tool that the FBI uses to protect our country from national security threats, and Americans can rest assured that the FBI remains dedicated to continuously strengthening our FISA compliance efforts and ensuring that our FISA authorities are exercised in a responsible manner."
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Jul. 30, 2020 11:43AM EST
The NBA is back — even if it's in a bubble
Table: Axios Visuals
The NBA returns tonight with a Western Conference doubleheader — Jazz vs. Pelicans and Clippers vs. Lakers — kicking off a 10-week race to the finish, all within the friendly confines of what's become an exceptionally well-run Disney World bubble.
The state of play: 22 teams made the trip to Orlando, and for the next two weeks they'll each play eight "seeding games" to determine the playoff field.
- Seeding games count toward regular season records, after which the top seven teams in each conference automatically earn a playoff berth.
- The eighth seed must be more than four games up on the ninth, otherwise a "best of two" play-in series will determine the final playoff berth (No. 8 would need to win just one game; No. 9 would need to win both).
East
Favorites:
- Milwaukee Bucks: They're so far in first they'll likely use the seeding games as a tune-up, easing players into the new environment ahead of the playoffs.
- Toronto Raptors: The reigning champs have moved on nicely after Kawhi Leonard's departure, avoiding the infamous championship hangover.
- Boston Celtics: Kemba Walker's leadership and huge leaps from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have the Celts ready for a deep run.
Contenders:
- Miami Heat: All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo lead the way, but their depth sets them apart.
- Indiana Pacers: Victor Oladipo is fully healed, but All-Star center Domantas Sabonis was forced to leave the bubble for treatment on his plantar fascitis.
- Philadelphia 76ers: With Ben Simmons' back no longer aching, every team's going to want to avoid the Sixers.
The remaining teams include the Orlando Magic, Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards
West
Favorites:
- Los Angeles Lakers: Like the Bucks, the Lakers have a big enough lead to use these games as a tune-up, and it looks like Anthony Davis should be good to go on Thursday.
- Los Angeles Clippers: The layoff appears to have done wonders for Paul George's surgically-repaired shoulders, to say nothing of Leonard's chronic quad issue.
Contenders:
- Denver Nuggets: Depth was already a strength — but then they added seven-foot-two-inch rookie phenom Bol Bol.
- Utah Jazz: Their best shooter is out for the season with a wrist injury, but an elite defense gives them some wiggle room.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Despite losing Russell Westbrook and Paul George, they're better than they were a year ago thanks to Chris Paul's mastery and a breakout year from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
- Houston Rockets: Houston's still trying to shoot its way to a title, which is entirely possible, though Eric Gordon's ankle injury doesn't help.
- Dallas Mavericks: Luka Dončić and Kristaps Porziņģis fuel the league's top-rated offense.
Intriguing fringe teams:
- Memphis Grizzlies: Likely ROY Ja Morant has been as impactful as he is entertaining.
- Portland Trail Blazers: The return of injured bigs Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkić could make Portland a legit upset pick.
- New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson only played 19 games. Imagine where they'd be if he'd been healthy all year.
The remaining teams include the Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns.
Awards predictions
Voting for the NBA's end-of-year awards has concluded, after the league announced that the upcoming seeding games in Orlando won't factor into who wins the hardware. Winners will be announced during the playoffs.
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL), LeBron James (LAL), James Harden (HOU), Anthony Leonard (LAC), Damian Lillard (POR) and Davis (LAL) are the favorites.
- Our pick: LeBron. 25.7 pts, 7.9 reb and a league-high 10.6 ast, playing 35 mpg in his 17th season for the first-place Lakers.
- Likely winner: Antetokounmpo. Supremely deserving back-to-back wins for the Greek Freak on the strength of absurd numbers (29.6/13.7/5.8) and an NBA-best 53-12 record.
Defensive Player of the Year: Antetokounmpo (MIL), Davis (LAL), Rudy Gobert (UTA), Leonard (LAC) and Simmons (PHI) are the favorites.
- Our pick: Antetokounmpo. The anchor of the league's best defense can guard all five positions equally well.
- Likely winner: Antetokounmpo.
Rookie of the Year: Morant (MEM), Williamson (NOP), Brandon Clarke (MEM) and Kendrick Nunn (MIA) are the favorites.
- Our pick: Morant. He wasn't just a walking highlight reel — he also led Memphis to nearly as many wins in 65 games (32) as they had all of last season (33).
- Likely winner: Morant.
All-NBA: ESPN's Zach Lowe and The Ringer's Dan Devine agreed across the board. Who am I to say otherwise?
- First team: James (G), Harden (G), Antetokounmpo (F), Leonard (F), Davis (C)
- Second team: Paul (G), Lillard (G), Dončić (F), Jimmy Butler (F), Nikola Jokić (C)
- Third team: Tatum (G), Simmons (G), Pascal Siakam (F), Khris Middleton (F), Gobert (C)
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