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Biden takes Trump's lead in space
The Biden administration is staying the course set out by the Trump administration when it comes to space, at least for now.
Why it matters: Administrations often abandon their predecessors' goals in favor of new ones when they come to power. That kind of "moonshot whiplash" can leave NASA stuck on Earth because it takes consistency between administrations to accomplish large exploration goals.
Driving the news: Earlier this month, the Biden administration affirmed its plans to continue the Artemis program to land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon.
- The administration also threw its weight behind the Space Force, with White House press secretary Jen Psaki saying the new military branch has the "full support of the Biden administration."
- "I'm very proud of the Biden administration for sticking with these very important measures," Jim Bridenstine, Trump's NASA administrator, told me. "My goal from day one was to create a program that was sustainable, that would be able to cross from one administration to the next."
- The Biden administration is also re-emphasizing the importance of climate change research at NASA, appointing Gavin Schmidt as the agency's acting senior climate adviser, a new role expected to help lead NASA's climate research.
Yes, but: While some political appointments have been made at NASA, the administration has yet to put forth a nomination for NASA administrator, a key position that will drive the course of the space agency.
- The first Artemis mission was expected to get people to the surface of the Moon by 2024, but that's looking less likely now, and some are recommending that the landing date be moved back for safety and funding reasons.
- Experts are also wondering how space policy and directives centered on space will be managed under this administration, due to the possible dissolution of the National Space Council.
Between the lines: So far, many of Biden's moments of space news have been due to questions from the press, not statements from the administration driving the news themselves.
- "They've not taken a lot of interest in space," unlike the Trump administration, Todd Harrison, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me. "This wasn't part of the campaign, and it's apparently not something that they've taken time to get up to speed on and really dive into."
What to watch: Even though space appears to be on the radar for Biden now, the real test will be how much funding he proposes in the administration's budget.
- "You can say all the great words in the world about Artemis," the Planetary Society's Casey Dreier told me. "You can say all the great things you want about NASA, but when it comes down to it, NASA needs the resources to succeed."
How Biden is selling his infrastructure plan to Democrats
White House senior adviser Anita Dunn is making the case that Democrats can't lose by rallying around President Biden's infrastructure plan because its individual components poll even higher than the $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus passed last month.
Driving the news: "Key components of President Biden’s American Jobs Plan are overwhelmingly popular — among a bipartisan and broad coalition," Dunn wrote in a memo to "interested parties" obtained by Axios around Biden's rollout of the first of two infrastructure spending packages.
Why it matters: With a price tag of between $2.2 trillion and $2.7 trillion depending on how it's calculated, it already has come under fire from Republican lawmakers and faces resistance from some moderate Democrats.
- But Dunn's memo suggests that, rather than worry, Democrats can lean into the popularity of the individual components of the plan to pressure House and Senate Republicans to come around — and bash them to voters if they don't.
By the numbers: Dunn cites public polling showing between 74% and 87% support among Americans for seven elements: new job training for coal miners, highway and bridge work, increasing affordable childcare, expanding broadband access, expanding family and medical leave, upgrading public transportation, and investing in clean energy.
- The individual elements garner higher bipartisan support than when Americans are simply asked if they support a new infrastructure bill.
Decisive meeting between U.S., Israel and UAE could lead to Israeli-Sudanese normalization
U.S., Emirati and Sudanese officials will hold a decisive meeting in Abu Dhabi on Sunday on a possible normalization agreement between Sudan and Israel, Sudanese sources told me.
Why it matters: If the U.S. and the UAE accommodate Sudan’s requests for economic aid, an announcement on a normalization agreement with Israel similar to the ones struck with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain could be made within days, sources briefed on the process tell me.
Details:
- The White House National Security Council's senior director for the Gulf and North Africa, Gen. Miguel Correa, is expected to represent the U.S. at the meeting. Gen. Correa was involved in the efforts to draft the Israel-UAE agreement.
- The UAE, which is hosting the meeting, will be represented by national security adviser Tahnoon Bin Zayed (TBZ), who is also in charge of the talks with Israel.
- The Sudanese will be represented by members of the civilian and military branches of the government — mainly the chief of staff to Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and Minister of Justice Nasredeen Abdulbari, who is also a U.S. citizen.
According to Sudanese sources, the government of Sudan is asking for the following economic aid in return for a normalization deal with Israel:
- Shipments of oil and wheat worth $1.2 billion in order to deal with a humanitarian crisis caused by devastating floods.
- A grant of $2 billion to the Sudanese government's budget to deal with the economic crisis. The Sudanese are also ready to consider a loan for 25 years.
- A commitment by the U.S. and the UAE to providing Sudan with economic aid over the next three years.
Between the lines: Israel is following Sunday’s meeting very closely. Since the meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the chairman of the Sudanese sovereignty council General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan last February in Uganda, both countries continued quiet talks on the possibility of normalization.
- The issue of normalization between Sudan and Israel was raised last Tuesday in a meeting in Washington between Netanyahu and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Israel has been encouraging the Trump administration to adhere to Sudan’s request for economic aid as part of any normalization deal.
- In addition to economic aid, the Sudanese government wants the Trump administration to remove Sudan from the State Department's state sponsors of terrorism list. This issue is indirectly connected to the normalization deal with Israel. Pompeo supports delisting Sudan and set the end of October as a deadline for this move, according to U.S. officials.
But in order for this to happen, the following conditions must be met:
- The Sudanese government needs to pay $300 million as compensation to the families of U.S. citizens killed in terror attacks against U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998 and against the USS Cole in 2000.
- The U.S. Senate needs to pass a bipartisan bill spearheaded by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) that will give Sudan immunity from future lawsuits in the U.S. and reinstate Sudan’s status as a country that does not sponsor terrorism.
- Pompeo is pressing both Republican and Democratic senators to support the bill and vote on it by mid-October. U.S. officials believe that a normalization agreement between Sudan and Israel will convince Congress to support such a bill.
The meeting in Abu Dhabi on Sunday will take place on the sidelines of the visit by al-Burhan to the UAE. He is expected to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed and discuss a possible normalization deal with Israel in return for U.S. and Emirati aid for Sudan.
The big picture: Al-Burhan is pushing for normalization with Israel and believe it will help Sudan get out of the economic and humanitarian crisis it's facing, Sudanese sources tell me.
- Al-Burhan only represents the military faction of the government. The civilian faction and Prime Minister Hamdok had reservations about the move for a long time out of concern for domestic protests.
- Sudanese sources told me that in recent days, Hamdok was convinced that normalization with Israel will serve Sudan’s interests and gave al-Burhan a green light to move forward if Sudan’s requests for economic aid are met.
- Hamdok didn’t join al-Burhan on the trip, but sent his chief of staff and minister of justice to take part in the negotiations.
The White House and Emirati officials decline to comment on this story.
The world's pandemic rebound
The global economy will end this year 2.5% larger than the end of 2019, according to new (rosier) forecasts from the IMF.
Why it matters: The overall growth rate of 6% in 2021 masks a huge range between countries.
For instance: India is projected to grow at a 12.5% pace this year, while Nigeria will only grow by 2.5%.
The big picture: Europe is going to end 2021 with a smaller economy than it had at the end of 2019. Asia, however, is seeing torrid growth, led by both China and India.
- The United States is doing extremely well by developed-country standards, with tailwinds from both widespread vaccinations and more than $5 trillion in economic stimulus.




