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Pacific Northwest heat wave has no historical precedent and is fueling wildfires
The extreme heat that shattered records across the Pacific Northwest — and still has not abated in many areas — has no precedent in modern record-keeping, data analyses shows. This is also the case in British Columbia, where the temperature soared to an almost unimaginable 121°F in Lytton on Tuesday.
Why it matters: Heat of this magnitude is proving to be deadly, which is consistent with findings that heat waves are typically the deadliest weather phenomena in the U.S. each year.
The big picture: With the heat settling further inland in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and parts of Canada, it's possible to check the historical record to see how the approximately 60 all-time high temperature records stack up.
- Typically, all-time records are broken by fractions of a degree to one or two degrees most. But during this heat event — caused by an extraordinarily strong area of high pressure aloft, or "heat dome," and aggravated by drought and global warming — temperatures exceeded previous records by more than 10°F in some places.
- Studies getting underway now to examine how big a role climate change has been playing in this event are likely to find that heat of this magnitude, occurring so early in the summer in such a relatively cool region of the country, was virtually impossible without human-caused global warming.
By the numbers: A chart similar to the one above for Portland, except looking at Lytton, shows an even more pronounced temperature spike compared to the historical record, Berkeley Earth scientist Robert Rohde said on Twitter.
Stunning breakout far above all previously measured values to set a new national temperature record for Canada of 49.6 °C (121 °F).
— Dr. Robert Rohde (@RARohde) June 30, 2021
This heatwave has reached further above historical means than any other summer heatwave previously recorded anywhere in North America. pic.twitter.com/aNURI7W8Yh
Between the lines: While computer models accurately captured the likelihood of extreme heat, since they were projecting unprecedented outcomes, forecasters had some trouble mentally processing them. This was visible on social media, as forecasters shared their thinking, but also in official National Weather Service forecast discussions.
- One technical forecast discussion from the NWS office in Seattle on Tuesday evening stated: "As there is no previous occurrence of the event we're experiencing in the local climatological record, it's somewhat disconcerting to have no analogy to work with. Temperature records will fall in impressive fashion. Stay cool, stay hydrated."
What's next: With the Western U.S. in the grips of severe drought and unusually hot conditions, wildfire season has started early.
- In northern California, the Lava Fire grew to nearly 18,000 acres overnight.
- Smoky skies are spreading throughout British Columbia and spilling into Alberta as blazes ignite in that province, which usually features wildfires toward the end of the summer, when conditions are driest.
- On Wednesday, President Biden, together with Vice President Harris, members of the Cabinet and representatives from the private sector, are convening a virtual meeting with Western governors about the threat of a devastating fire season, and how best to prepare for it.
- “I ... know that we are in a different climate, as the president said, on every level than we were even 10 years ago,” Harris said.
Go deeper: Biden moves to raise federal firefighters' pay as wildfire season kicks off
Israel's election: Netanyahu seeks a majority to block his corruption trial
Israelis will go to the polls next Tuesday for the fourth time in two years, with Netanyahu running an aggressive campaign against a splintered opposition.
Why it matters: Netanyahu's narrow path to a 61-seat majority would require him to form an ultra-right-wing government, dependent on the votes of Jewish supremacists and anti-LGBT and pro-annexation members of Knesset. With a majority, Netanyahu could pass a law or take other steps to delay or end his corruption trial.
- He denies that's his aim, but prospective members of his coalition have announced they would support it.
The state of play: Current polls show Netanyahu’s bloc at 58 seats, but things could easily shift in his direction on election day.
- Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold means several small parties will either win around four seats or be left out entirely.
- Voter fatigue, particularly on the left, also makes turnout unpredictable.
Three scenarios
- If one or more of the three small anti-Netanyahu parties falls short, that could shift the whole balance of power and get Netanyahu to the magic number of 61. That's a very likely scenario.
- If turnout dips among Netanyahu supporters, and the radical right-wing Religious Zionist Party fails to pass the threshold, there could be a window for a center-right government comprised of Netanyahu's opponents. That's an unlikely scenario.
- If the current polls prove accurate and neither side can form a coalition, Israel will head for a fifth election in the summer. That's very possible.
The splintering of the opposition has actually made life more difficult for Netanyahu in one sense: Unlike in the past three cycles, he doesn't have a clear rival on the left to rally his supporters against.
- Rather than a head-to-head race where Netanyahu can reprise the argument that “it’s us or them,” he has three opponents all heading medium-sized parties.
The other contenders
1. Yair Lapid and the centrist Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party. A former journalist, Lapid is the current opposition leader in the Knesset.
- What to watch: Lapid hasn't even declared that he wants to be prime minister, and he says he's willing to let someone else have the job in order to get rid of Netanyahu. Netanyahu has focused his campaign on Lapid, but he's largely failed to position it as a head-to-head contest.
- By the numbers: Yesh Atid gets around 20 seats in the polls, a distant second to Netanyahu's Likud, which has around 30.
2. Naftali Bennett and the right-wing Yamina (To the Right) party. A former tech entrepreneur, Bennett focused his campaign on COVID-19 and the economy.
- What to watch: While Bennett has stressed the need to replace Netanyahu, he hasn't ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led government. That could make him a kingmaker if the election results aren't definitive.
- By the numbers: Yamina only polls at around 12 seats, but it could be impossible to form a coalition that excludes Netanyahu without handing Bennett the prime minister’s job.
3. Gideon Sa'ar and the right-wing New Hope party. Sa'ar, a former education and interior minister, left Likud in an attempt to position himself as a more old school and less populist right-wing alternative to Netanyahu.
- By the numbers: Sa'ar's party has been sliding in the polls, from around 18 seats to nine in the latest polls.
The bottom line: Only a power-sharing deal between Lapid, Bennett and Sa'ar could produce a new Israeli government without Netanyahu. Such cooperation between the three of them will be very hard to get.



