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Murder rates spiked in 2020, and are still rising in 2021
After a year in which murders spiked in the U.S., homicides are already trending up in many cities, presaging whatis likely to be a violent summer.
Why it matters: The rise in homicides is a public health crisis that has multiple interlocking causes, which makes solving it that much more difficult. We're still a long way from the murderous days of the 1990s, but rising gun violence is destroying lives and complicating efforts to help cities recover from COVID-19.
Driving the news: From Washington to Louisville, Kentucky, New York to Oakland, California, and Kansas City to Atlanta, murder rates are trending up in U.S. cities large and small.
- A sample of 37 cities with data available for the first three months of 2021 collected by the crime analyst Jeff Asher indicates murders are up 18% over the same period in 2020.
- The continued increase comes after a year in which major U.S. cities experienced a 33% rise in homicides, and 63 of the 66 largest police jurisdictions saw an increase in at least one category of violent crime, according to a report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association.
Between the lines: While it may be tempting to dismiss 2020 and the early indicators in 2021 as aberrations caused by the pandemic, murder rates were already ticking upward in the years before the pandemic.
- After hitting a modern-day low in 2014 following a quarter-century of general decline, homicide rates began rising again in many cities.
The intrigue: Criminologists still haven't settled on a single explanation for why violent crime dropped drastically from the 1990s, and they're even less certain why it's risen so dramatically over the past 16 months.
- The direct and indirect effects of the pandemic almost certainly play a major role, with in-person schools closed, violence prevention programs forced to pull back and unemployment skyrocketing, especially in big cities.
- But property crimes like robberies mostly continued falling, and historically there's no clear link between periods of economic disruption and murder rates.
- While some police leaders blame resourcing issues because of the nationwide marches that followed the killing of George Floyd by police last summer, with a few exceptions there's little evidence the protests directly led to a rise in the murder rate. But a general pulling back of policing — plus the distancing effects of the pandemic itself and the closure of courts — likely contributed to more murders and fewer of them being solved.
- 2020 saw a historic increase in firearm purchases — especially among first-time buyers — adding to a nationwide arsenal that was already overflowing with guns. More guns at the ready mean disputes can rise more quickly to the level of shootings, and lack of trust in the police makes people more willing to take matters into their own hands.
Yes, but: Even if 2021 eclipses last year's murder numbers, America will remain a far safer country than it was during the most violent years of the 1990s.
- New York City recorded 462 homicides in 2020, an increase of nearly 45%, but in 1990 the city recorded 2,605 murders — more than seven per day.
What's next: A violent summer on America's streets appears likely, given that homicide already appears to be trending above last year's spike.
- Homicide rates historically spike during the summer months, when the hotter weather puts more people on the streets, and while vaccination coverage is increasing, the pandemic and all its knock-on effects won't be finished by then.
- "Summer 2021 is going to be abnormally violent," John Roman, a senior fellow at the economics, justice and society group at NORC at the University of Chicago, wrote this year. "It is the new normal."
The bottom line: The historic decline in murder over the past few decades was accompanied by mass incarcerations and increasingly brutal policing, leading to what the criminologist Patrick Sharkey termed "the uneasy peace."
- As America reckons a new murder wave with policing in the post-George Floyd killing era, it needs to find a way to a lasting peace that features both safety and justice.
Biden won't reverse Trump's Western Sahara move for now, U.S. tells Morocco
Secretary of State Tony Blinken told Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita in a phone call on Friday that the Biden administration would not reverse President Trump's recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over the Western Sahara for the time being, two sources familiar with the call told me.
Why it matters: Trump's recognition of the Western Sahara as part of Morocco reversed decades of U.S. policy regarding the disputed territory, and was part of a broader deal that included the renewal of diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel.
- The U.S. decision last December was a long-sought diplomatic breakthrough for Morocco. The kingdom was concerned it could be reversed once Biden took office.
- Israel was also concerned that a reversal of the policy would harm the normalization process with Morocco.
- The U.S. is the only Western country to recognize Morocco's sovereignty over the Western Sahara, which was annexed by Morocco in 1975 after former colonial power Spain surrendered control.
The backstory: There had been almost no contact between the Biden administration and the Moroccan government over the first three weeks of the new administration.
- Ten days ago, Biden's Middle East advisor, Brett McGurk, spoke to Bourita and gave the impression that there would be no change in the U.S. policy on Western Sahara, a source familiar with the call told me.
- The State Department readout of Blinken's call with Bourita on Friday didn't mention Western Sahara, but two sources familiar with the call confirm that it was discussed and that Blinken said the Biden administration would not reverse Trump's policy for now.
- According to the State Department readout Blinken "welcomed Morocco’s steps to improve relations with Israel and noted the Morocco-Israel relationship will bring long-term benefits for both countries."
The state of play: Senior White House and State Department officials have held multiple discussions on this issue over the last few weeks.
- The decision that emerged from these discussions was not to reverse Trump's policy but to work with the Moroccans on appointing a new UN envoy for the Western Sahara in order to try and resume talks on possible autonomy for the sparsely populated territory, according to two sources familiar with those discussions.
- The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



