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Murder rates spiked in 2020, and are still rising in 2021
After a year in which murders spiked in the U.S., homicides are already trending up in many cities, presaging whatis likely to be a violent summer.
Why it matters: The rise in homicides is a public health crisis that has multiple interlocking causes, which makes solving it that much more difficult. We're still a long way from the murderous days of the 1990s, but rising gun violence is destroying lives and complicating efforts to help cities recover from COVID-19.
Driving the news: From Washington to Louisville, Kentucky, New York to Oakland, California, and Kansas City to Atlanta, murder rates are trending up in U.S. cities large and small.
- A sample of 37 cities with data available for the first three months of 2021 collected by the crime analyst Jeff Asher indicates murders are up 18% over the same period in 2020.
- The continued increase comes after a year in which major U.S. cities experienced a 33% rise in homicides, and 63 of the 66 largest police jurisdictions saw an increase in at least one category of violent crime, according to a report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association.
Between the lines: While it may be tempting to dismiss 2020 and the early indicators in 2021 as aberrations caused by the pandemic, murder rates were already ticking upward in the years before the pandemic.
- After hitting a modern-day low in 2014 following a quarter-century of general decline, homicide rates began rising again in many cities.
The intrigue: Criminologists still haven't settled on a single explanation for why violent crime dropped drastically from the 1990s, and they're even less certain why it's risen so dramatically over the past 16 months.
- The direct and indirect effects of the pandemic almost certainly play a major role, with in-person schools closed, violence prevention programs forced to pull back and unemployment skyrocketing, especially in big cities.
- But property crimes like robberies mostly continued falling, and historically there's no clear link between periods of economic disruption and murder rates.
- While some police leaders blame resourcing issues because of the nationwide marches that followed the killing of George Floyd by police last summer, with a few exceptions there's little evidence the protests directly led to a rise in the murder rate. But a general pulling back of policing — plus the distancing effects of the pandemic itself and the closure of courts — likely contributed to more murders and fewer of them being solved.
- 2020 saw a historic increase in firearm purchases — especially among first-time buyers — adding to a nationwide arsenal that was already overflowing with guns. More guns at the ready mean disputes can rise more quickly to the level of shootings, and lack of trust in the police makes people more willing to take matters into their own hands.
Yes, but: Even if 2021 eclipses last year's murder numbers, America will remain a far safer country than it was during the most violent years of the 1990s.
- New York City recorded 462 homicides in 2020, an increase of nearly 45%, but in 1990 the city recorded 2,605 murders — more than seven per day.
What's next: A violent summer on America's streets appears likely, given that homicide already appears to be trending above last year's spike.
- Homicide rates historically spike during the summer months, when the hotter weather puts more people on the streets, and while vaccination coverage is increasing, the pandemic and all its knock-on effects won't be finished by then.
- "Summer 2021 is going to be abnormally violent," John Roman, a senior fellow at the economics, justice and society group at NORC at the University of Chicago, wrote this year. "It is the new normal."
The bottom line: The historic decline in murder over the past few decades was accompanied by mass incarcerations and increasingly brutal policing, leading to what the criminologist Patrick Sharkey termed "the uneasy peace."
- As America reckons a new murder wave with policing in the post-George Floyd killing era, it needs to find a way to a lasting peace that features both safety and justice.
The Suez Canal is clear, but shipping is still broken
International shipping and supply chains are in rough shape, even without a container ship lodged in the Suez Canal.
Why it matters: The pandemic threw a wrench into the gears of a global network that was already struggling with oversized ships and unbalanced product flows. Given how long it takes for the system to recover from any kind of shock, the echoes of the Ever Given disruption are likely to reverberate for months.
The pandemic caused demand for services to plunge while demand for goods — much of which are imported by ship — spiked.
- The sheer quantity of goods moving east across the Pacific already dwarfed exports in the opposite direction, and the pandemic exacerbated that trend.
How it works: Enormous container ships run on schedules that are worked out sometimes years in advance. The industry flourishes in times of predictability, and tends to come unstuck during moments of unpredictable demand.
- Bottlenecks have built up, especially in Southern California, with ships waiting weeks to unload their cargo. Once they're unloaded, they rush out of port quickly to allow a new ship in — so quickly that they often don't have time to reload, leaving potential U.S. exports stranded on domestic shores.
- Because the ships are so large, their maximum speed has been reduced to the point at which they cannot make up for lost time.
The bottom line: A system of small and nimble container ships could have recovered much more easily from the Suez delays. That's not the system we have.
- Expect U.S. retailers to continue to complain about shipping delays on earnings calls for the foreseeable future.
Witness breaks down after Gorge Floyd video: "I understand him"
Witness Charles McMillian, 61, broke down Wednesday afternoon after prosecutors played police bodycam video of George Floyd saying over and over that he couldn't breathe and calling for his mother.
The big picture: The reaction captured what we've seen from witness after witness — the trauma of reliving those harrowing moments on global television as America reckons all over again with one of its worst moments.
- McMillian was recorded on bodycam footage telling Floyd to take it easy.
- "You can't win," he told Floyd.
At one point in the testimony, McMillian dropped his head to the table. He composed himself for a second, held his head, grabbed a tissue and said: "Oh, my God."
- He took a swig of water, still crying. He dabbed his eyes, then nodded his head for the questioning to continue.
Asked to explain what he was feeling, McMillian was barely able to say:
- "I feel helpless. I don't have a mama either, but I understand him."
Go deeper:
- Cashier says he felt "guilt" for accepting George Floyd's fake bill
- Off-duty EMT: I was "desperate" to help Floyd but "officers didn't let me into the scene"
- Witness who recorded George Floyd's death says she stays up at night "apologizing" to him
- 911 dispatcher testimony at Chauvin trial: "Something was not right"
- Prosecutors play 911 call at Derek Chauvin trial
What we learned about ourselves in lockdown
Americans learned over the past year that they kind of like working and socializing from home, and might keep these parts of their pandemic lifestyles going even after offices, bars and restaurants become options again, according to new Harris Poll data.
Why it matters: Even after the threat from COVID-19 recedes, we know life won’t simply return to its pre-pandemic shape. This year has altered everything from our media diets to our sense of work-life balance to our ideas of what’s fun.
By the numbers: 75% of Americans said they learned during the pandemic that they prefer socializing in small groups at home over going out to bars.
- 59% said they didn’t miss going out to bars to socialize as much as they thought they would, and 60% said they’ve learned over the past year “how much I love entertaining at home in small pandemic pods.”
- And when asked what their social lives will likely look like when all the options are available, a plurality said they’ll mostly be hanging out at home, compared to just 17% who said they’ll mostly be going out.
Americans have also gotten used to working from home, according to the Harris Poll data, which were pulled from a comprehensive report combining multiple surveys over the past year.
- 67% said their lifestyles have gotten healthier while working from home, and 55% said they’ve discovered that they didn’t miss the office as much as they thought they would.
- 74% of Americans who are working from home said they’d consider taking a “workcation” — going somewhere else for a while, but working while there.
- 40% of Americans said they’d miss having extra time in the mornings if they have to go back into an office full-time, and 39% said they’d miss being at home with their families.
Go deeper: Read the full Harris Poll report on Americans’ changing attitudes over the past year.



