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The world's pandemic rebound
The global economy will end this year 2.5% larger than the end of 2019, according to new (rosier) forecasts from the IMF.
Why it matters: The overall growth rate of 6% in 2021 masks a huge range between countries.
For instance: India is projected to grow at a 12.5% pace this year, while Nigeria will only grow by 2.5%.
The big picture: Europe is going to end 2021 with a smaller economy than it had at the end of 2019. Asia, however, is seeing torrid growth, led by both China and India.
- The United States is doing extremely well by developed-country standards, with tailwinds from both widespread vaccinations and more than $5 trillion in economic stimulus.
Artificial intelligence brings dangerous new element to a nuclear game that is 75 years old
75 years after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, some experts believe the risk of the use of a nuclear weapon is as high now as it has been since the Cuban missile crisis.
The big picture: Nuclear war remains the single greatest present threat to humanity — and one that is poised to grow as emerging technologies, like much faster missiles, cyber warfare and artificial intelligence, upset an already precarious nuclear balance.
What's happening: A mix of shifting geopolitical tensions and technological change is upsetting a decades-long state of strategic stability around nuclear weapons.
- Strategic stability is when no country has an incentive to launch a first nuclear strike, knowing that doing so would inevitably lead to a catastrophic response. It's the "mutual" in "mutually assured destruction."
- Arms control deals like the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty are collapsing, while faster hypersonic missiles are shrinking the already brief minutes available to decide how and whether to respond to a potential nuclear attack, meaning "the possibilities of a miscalculation are unfortunately higher than they have been in a long, long time," says former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz.
- As concerning as rising tensions are between the U.S. and Russia, or between the U.S. and a more assertive China, experts worry even more about the destabilizing effect of emerging technologies like cyber warfare and AI.
- "The black box of AI in the future of war makes it almost inherently unpredictable," says P.W. Singer, a strategist at New America and author of "Burn-In" — and unpredictability is anathema to a nuclear balance held in place by predictability.
Cyber warfare can directly increase the risk of nuclear conflict if it is used to disrupt command and control systems.
- But a greater danger may come from cyber conflict playing out in a space occupied by both military and civilian users, which risks eroding the bright line between nuclear and conventional war.
- The U.S. and Israel are widely understood to have targeted Iran's nuclear program with the Stuxnet computer worm, hackers in Russia have probed U.S. nuclear plants and Chinese hackers have conducted cyber espionage on the U.S. military.
- U.S. policymakers have discussed whether to threaten a nuclear response to a wide-scale cyberattack on power infrastructure, which may serve as a deterrent, but also opens up a new and unpredictable escalation pathway to nuclear conflict.
AI is only in its infancy, but depending on how it develops, it could utterly disrupt the nuclear balance.
- Even in its nascent stages, AI is likely to make offensive cyberhacking of all kinds more effective, increasing the risk that a cyberconflict could turn nuclear.
- AI may eventually help war planners more effectively target an enemy's nuclear weapons. That would make an opponent more vulnerable — and potentially more willing to use nuclear weapons first out of a fear they might lose them.
- As Singer notes, "just like any human, AI can suffer from various biases" — especially since there is no real-world nuclear war data to train it on.
- But unlike a human, the smarter AI gets, the harder it is for humans to understand how it works, and whether it's making a mistake in a realm where there is no room for mistakes.
Be smart: As analysts from RAND wrote in a 2018 report, "AI may be strategically destabilizing not because it works too well but because it works just well enough to feed uncertainty." Whether or not an AI system could provide a decisive advantage in a nuclear standoff, if either the system's user or that country's opponent believes it can do so, the result could be catastrophic.
- Yes, but: Singer also offers a more hopeful scenario where effective AI could reduce the risk of human miscalculation by "offering far greater information in scale and detail than was possible in the past."
The bottom line: The riskiest period of the Cold War was its earliest stages, when military and political leaders didn't yet fully understand the nature of what Hiroshima had demonstrated. Emerging technologies like AI threaten to plunge us back into that uncertainty.
Trump on Putin critic Alexei Navalny's poisioning: "We haven't had any proof yet"
President Trump denied there is any proof that Russia poisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny at a White House press conference on Friday, saying he would be "very angry if that is the case."
Why it matters: Trump, in his first public comments since Nalvany fell ill during a flight from Siberia to Moscow, said: "I don't know exactly what happened." The German government announced this week that the poisoning was conducted with Novichok, a chemical typically associated with Russian security services.
What Trump's saying: "So, I don't know exactly what happened. I think that it is tragic. It is terrible. It should not happen. We have not had any proof yet, but we will take a look. ... I would be very angry if that is the case."
Instead of backing the German government's analysis of Nalvany's illness, Trump spoke of his relationship with other counties around the world and noted ongoing negotiations with Russia on a non-proliferation agreement.
- "I get along with almost all countries," Trump said. "I get along with North Korea ... If Hillary got elected, we would be in a war right now with North Korea. ... We have a great peace deal in the Middle East with UAE and Israel."
The president questioned why reporters frequently ask him about Russia and requested more questions on China.
- "It is interesting that everybody is always mentioning Russia," Trump said. "I don't mind you mentioning them, but China at this point is probably a nation that you should be talking about much more so than Russia, because the things that China is doing are far worse."
Trump says he'll spend "whatever it takes" of his own money to win re-election
President Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he'll spend "whatever it takes" of his own money if necessary to win in November, stressing that it's "the most important election in the history of our country."
Why it matters: The comments come after reports that Trump's campaign is having real money concerns — an unusual position for an incumbent that has worried GOP operatives. The campaign has yet to release its August fundraising, but Joe Biden and the Democrats say they raised a record-breaking $364.5 million last month.
- Some of the notable expenses for the Trump campaign include $11 million on Super Bowl advertising, roughly $4 million to Trump businesses since 2019 and approximately $156,000 on planes for aerial banners, according the New York Times.
- "We have much more money than we had last time going into the last two months, I think double or triple" Trump claimed. "But if we needed any more, I'd put it up personally."
Trump tweeted later Wednesday that China and COVID-19 are to blame for his shortfalls.
- "Because of the China Virus, my Campaign, which has raised a lot of money, was forced to spend in order to counter the Fake News reporting about the way we handled it (China Ban, etc.). We did, and are doing, a GREAT job, and have a lot of money left over, much more than 2016," he tweeted.
- "Like I did in the 2016 Primaries, if more money is needed, which I doubt it will be, I will put it up!"



