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Inflation surpasses coronavirus as investors' biggest worry

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Chart: Axios Visuals

Inflation is the number one risk for the market, according to a monthly survey of global asset managers commissioned by Bank of America, displacing COVID-19 for the first time since February 2020.

Details: Both inflation (37% of respondents) and the risk of a market taper tantrum (35%) beat out the pandemic as the top risk for investors.


  • COVID-19 and the vaccine rollout dropped from being seen as the biggest risk by nearly 30% of respondents in February to less than 15% in March.

One level deeper: A net 93% of investors in the survey expect inflation to rise in the next 12 months, up 7 percentage points from last month and the highest reading in the history of the survey, which dates back to at least 1995.

  • 53% of fund managers expect above-trend inflation along with above-trend growth over the next year, the first time that has happened since March 2011 and the third time in the history of the survey.

By the numbers: That matches up with sky-rocketing market gauges of inflation expectations that have jumped to yearslong highs in recent days.

  • The 5-year breakeven inflation rate jumped to 2.59% on Tuesday, the highest since July 2008.
  • The 10-year breakeven rate hit 2.30%, the highest since January 2014.

Of note: The survey also found fund managers were incredibly bullish, with 91% of respondents expecting a stronger economy, the highest result on record.

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Despite an infamous past, hydrogen may have a bright energy future

As the world seeks to rebuild from the coronavirus pandemic, support is pouring in for hydrogen energy to cut carbon emissions and create jobs.

Why it matters: The obscure energy source could help tackle climate change in the thorniest parts of the global energy system, like shipping and power storage. But it’s prohibitively expensive and would need lots of government support to get off the ground.

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