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Valuations for venture-backed companies at record highs
Valuations for U.S. venture-backed companies are at record highs, per data released this morning by PitchBook.
Between the lines: It's the new normal, in which nontraditional investors are traditional, unicorns are pigeons and startups are in the driver's seat.
Inside the numbers: Valuation creep can be seen across all stages of the VC ecosystem, from seed to pre-IPO. It's also showing up in both the medians and averages, and also across quartiles, reflecting how this isn't just a few big deals skewing the data.
- Early-stage valuations hit all-time records in Q2 2021 of $50 million (median) and $105.4 million (average).
- Late-stage valuations also hit new highs, with the trendline suggesting that average late-stage valuations could top $1 billion by year-end.
- Value hunting: Deals in the four major tech hubs of SF, NYC, LA and Boston remain more expensive than deals elsewhere in the U.S.
What's happening: Most of this is just animal spirits running rampant, with price discipline now viewed as passé. Plus a ton of crossover money seeking yield and public equity markets forcing a reverse denominator effects on LP bankrolls.
- This often means that funds are owning smaller percentages of their portfolio companies, with average late-stage stakes falling below 20% for the first time ever.
- It's possible that a Fed taper or federal tax increases could grow valuation growth, but neither
What to watch: Fed tapering? Congress raising taxes on the wealthy? Maybe, but we've just lived through 18 months of a global pandemic that freaked out investors for all of five minutes.
- Until and unless the public markets repeatedly punch venture capitalists in the nose, forcing them to taste their own red ink, startup valuations will continue to rise. And there's no indication that's going to happen, after several years of feeling like it should happen.
TikTok introducing more automation to video removals
TikTok is rolling out a new system that will allow the company to block videos that violate its policies automatically when they're uploaded. The social network is also changing the way it will notify users when their content is removed.
Why it matters: TikTok says the new system will not only improve the user experience, but will help reduce the number of distressing videos (such as those with violent content) that its safety team must review, freeing staff to focus on more nuanced content areas, like hate speech, bullying and harassment.
Details: Beginning this week, TikTok will test the automatic deletion of several content categories that violates its policies, like minor safety, adult nudity and sexual activities, violent and graphic content, illegal activities and regulated goods.
- The company says its technology has the highest degree of accuracy in identifying violating content across these categories.
- It's been testing these changes in outside markets before bringing them to the U.S. TikTok says tests show the false positive rate for automated removals is 5%, while requests to appeal a video's removal have remained consistent.
Be smart: TikTok's safety team has always removed content its technology screened as a violation of its rules, but these changes will bring more automation to the process, making its moderation efforts more efficient. Its safety team will continue to review reports and content removal appeals from users.
The big picture: The changes are part of a wider company effort to be more transparent about the way TikTok moderates content.
- Last week, the company said for the first time it will report how many accounts it removes because they belong to users under age 13.
What's next: TikTok said that as a part of Friday's update, it will also change the way it notifies users when they violate the Community Guidelines.
- The new system takes actions on accounts based on the amount and severity of violations over time.
- Moving forward, TikTok will send an in-app warning to users that their content violates TikTok's rules, and could result in a ban on their account.
- If a user uploads a piece of content that TikTok has a zero-tolerance policy on (i.e.-child sexual abuse material), it will result in an automatic ban.
- Thereafter, users' accounts could be suspended or restricted if they are found to have repeatedly violated community guidelines. They will be notified after several violations if their account is on the verge of being banned.
Yes, but: TikTok acknowledges that its tech isn't perfect and it may inadvertently remove someone's video that doesn't violate its terms. In that scenario, TikTok says the content will be reinstated and the penalty will be erased from that user's record.
- Accrued violations, the company says, will expire from a person's record over time.
Beijing's antitrust push poses a problem for Western regulators
The Chinese government's anti-monopoly machinery presents a major challenge to U.S. and European regulators, a new book argues.
Why it matters: China's huge markets are attracting investment from multinational corporations and shaping the behavior of its own globe-trotting companies — giving international heft to the country's idiosyncratic antitrust enforcement and putting it on a collision course with Western-style regulation.
- Anti-competitive practices in China's domestic markets, such as pervasive but opaque state ownership, can make Chinese companies difficult for Western institutions to regulate while enabling China's own antitrust regulator to sometimes target Western companies for political reasons.
Driving the news: The Chinese government has launched a high-profile anti-monopoly campaign against domestic tech firms, including Alibaba, Ant Group, Meituan and others.
Details: In her new book "Chinese Antitrust Exceptionalism: How the Rise of China Challenges Global Regulation" (Oxford University Press, May 2021), legal scholar Angela Huyue Zhang makes three key points:
1. The anti-competitive behavior of some Chinese state-owned and private enterprises as they trade with the rest of the world is often due to China's complex domestic economic environment, rather than intentional, top-down orders from Beijing, as some have speculated.
- The takeaway: U.S. pressure on Beijing to change its laws so that they more closely resemble Western antitrust law isn't effective, because bureaucratic and economic complexities have shaped how China's antitrust law is carried out.
- Instead, America's "top priority should be to help China promote structural reform of its bureaucracy and enhance due process in administrative enforcement," Zhang writes.
2. The Chinese government sometimes uses its muscular domestic antitrust regime to support its larger international interests and exert pressure on foreign firms and governments — a type of extraterritorial influence that the U.S. has long wielded, though often in different ways.
- The U.S. has used its extraterritorial influence to shape the global regulatory environment, whereas the Chinese government has sometimes used its growing regulatory clout to pursue geopolitical interests, such as pushing back on boycotts.
- The takeaway: The line between antitrust action and national security has become blurred, especially since the U.S.-China trade war under the Trump administration saw both governments take economic actions against each other's companies for what appeared to be underlying security interests.
3. China's antitrust laws are superficially similar to Europe's but their enforcement is vastly different, a result of the fundamentally different political-economic systems of China and the West — a tension that presents a major challenge to globalization.
- Western regulation often requires a "clear delineation of a firm’s boundaries at the outset," Zhang writes, but Chinese firms may be partially or fully state-owned, and even private Chinese companies know they have to court the Chinese government to get ahead.
Zhang's solution: Zhang says she is still optimistic the two different systems will eventually arrive at a live-and-let-live kind of compromise.
- "As Chinese antitrust agencies hold foreign businesses hostage through the aggressive enforcement of antitrust law, foreign regulators can do the same by holding Chinese firms hostage, not necessarily through antitrust but also via other regulatory rules such as investment and trade," Zhang writes.
- "It is this reciprocal exchange of hostages that gives me hope for a peaceful resolution of the conflict."
Go deeper: China wants to avoid America's tech monopolies problem
Coronavirus infections fell by 24% last week
New coronavirus cases continued their sharp decline over the past week — progress that could help the U.S. find its way out of the pandemic faster and more safely, if it keeps up.
The big picture: Getting the virus' spread under control is the key to saving lives and reopening schools and businesses. And the tools to achieve that — masks, social distancing and vaccines — are also the most effective weapons against the more contagious variants that could threaten the U.S.' progress.
By the numbers: An average of 108,000 Americans were diagnosed with COVID-19 infections each day over the past week.
- That’s a 24% decline from the week before.
- Hospitalizations were also down last week, by about 8%, and deaths fell by 3%. The virus is still killing an average of roughly 3,000 Americans per day.
Between the lines: 108,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths per day is still a very bad situation, and shouldn't be considered a sustainable level of infection.
- But after the horrific winter outbreak the U.S. experienced, the only way to have a small number of cases is to keep climbing down week after week. And that’s happening.
- Nationwide, average daily cases have been declining by double digits for four weeks straight. Cumulatively, they've fallen by roughly 55% over that time.
- It’s been three weeks since even a single state reported an increase in average daily infections.
This is real progress.
What’s next: Experts have warned that new, more contagious variants of COVID-19 are gaining ground in the U.S. and likely will soon become the dominant strain here. That means each infected person is more likely to spread the virus.
- The best ways to avoid a surge in cases from those variants is to ramp up vaccinations, buckle down on masks and social distancing — including double masks when necessary — and continue to reduce the number of infected people.
Each week, Axios tracks the change in new infections in each state. We use a seven-day average to minimize the effects of day-to-day discrepancies in states’ reporting.

