I am the FIRST!!!
regular 4 post ff
infinite scroll 4 pff
Fed chair Jerome Powell attempts a high-wire circus act on inflation
Fed chair Jerome Powell is attempting something of a high-wire circus act as the central bank pushes forward with its average inflation targeting regime.
The big picture: He's trying to simultaneously raise inflation while keeping short-term interest rates low and stimulate the economy through unprecedented and extraordinary measures while convincing Americans the economy is doing well.
Driving the news: The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday but sharply ramped up its expectations for economic growth — while affirming that it does not plan to raise interest rates until after 2023.
- The central bank also curiously reworded the public statement accompanying its decision.
Why it matters: U.S. inflation expectations have shot up in recent months while unemployment remains incredibly high, a potentially devastating combination for the economy.
What we're hearing: "The Fed released its new framework last year and it’s showing that it means it," former Fed economist Claudia Sahm tells Axios.
- "Always in the past, expected inflation was what drove the Fed to say, 'Whoa, we’re going to ease up here and in fact might tap on the brakes.' That’s always been how the Fed worked."
- Now the Fed is "showing that it's not all about inflation, and it’s not about expected inflation. It’s about jobs and inflation and with the inflation, we have to see a sustained period of inflation above 2% before we’re going to pull back."
What's happening: That new framework is pushing investors and they're pushing market gauges of inflation like the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, its highest in more than a year, and 5-year breakeven rates to their highest level in nearly 13 years.
- Consumers, seeing consistently higher food, gas and auto prices, as well as increasing mortgage and loan rates also are predicting rising inflation, with a recent New York Fed survey showing the highest consumer inflation expectations in seven years.
- Google searches for inflation have jumped to their highest since record-keeping began in 2008, according to Deutsche Bank research.
Yes, but: While Powell has been content to let longer-term interest rates, which correspond with consumer products like mortgages, rise higher, he has fixated on keeping short-term rates, which correspond with the cost of borrowing for banks and large financial institutions, low.
- By insisting that the Fed isn't even thinking about thinking about raising rates, yields on short-dated Treasuries fall because they are closely tied to Fed policy.
The bottom line: "They’ve masterfully navigated this meeting by sounding somewhat optimistic on the economy but staying dovish on the policy path," Subadra Rajappa, interest rates strategist at Société Générale, tells Axios.
- "If the Fed were to even suggest they’re hiking soon the market will quickly price in multiple hikes and that would be much more negative for the economy."
Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears "ahead" on election night
President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to three sources familiar with his private comments.
- That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.
Behind the scenes: Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.
- For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.
Why it matters: Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3 — a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats — are evidence of election fraud.
Details: Many prognosticators say that on election night, Trump will likely appear ahead in Pennsylvania — though the state's final outcome could change substantially as mail-in ballots are counted over the following days.
- Trump's team is preparing to claim baselessly that if that process changes the outcome in Pennsylvania from the picture on election night, then Democrats would have "stolen" the election.
- Trump's advisers have been laying the groundwork for this strategy for weeks, but this is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his election night intentions.
What they're saying: Asked for comment, the Trump campaign's communications director Tim Murtaugh said, "This is nothing but people trying to create doubt about a Trump victory. When he wins, he's going to say so."
- Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller predicted that Trump "will be re-elected handily and no amount of post-election Democratic thievery will be able to change the results."
Reality check: Mail-in ballots counted after Election Day as set forth in state-by-state rules are as legitimate as in-person votes recorded on Nov. 3.
- Many states won't be done counting mail ballots by Tuesday night.
- In Pennsylvania, state law prevents election officials from counting mail-in ballots before Election Day.
- Night-of counts may be deceptive. It could be days, if not weeks, before we know who won Pennsylvania. If it's a close race this could also be true for other states, given the record numbers of Americans who voted by mail this year.
- Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said on NBC's "Meet the Press" today that there could be 10x as many mail ballots this year than in 2016, "so, yes, it will take longer" to count.
- "I expect that the overwhelming majority of ballots in Pennsylvania, that's mail-in and absentee ballots, as well as in-person ballots, will be counted within a matter of days," Boockvar said.
What we're watching: Miller, on ABC's "This Week," predicted 290+ electoral votes for Trump on election night, and claimed Democrats are "just going to try to steal it back after the election."
- He described any prospective challenges by Democrats as "hijinks or lawsuits or whatever kind of nonsense."
Between the lines: Trump advisers are more optimistic about winning than they were three weeks ago, based on my conversations with multiple senior campaign officials over the past week, including two officials with direct knowledge of sensitive internal data.
- They said analyses of early-vote totals in battleground states indicate he's doing substantially worse in Iowa and Georgia compared with this point in 2016, but better than expected in Texas, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin.
- Just a few weeks ago, senior Trump advisers were bearish about Wisconsin and had reduced TV advertising there to an insignificant figure. A senior campaign official told me, then, that the state didn't figure in his paths to 270 electoral votes.
- But that appears to have changed. In recent days, senior Trump advisers have privately expressed growing optimism about Wisconsin, based on their analysis of early vote data.
West Wing melts down as aides point fingers at Mark Meadows
White House crises of competence and credibility grew during a botched weekend that left even White House aides dismayed and befuddled.
Many complained bitterly about the leadership of chief of staff Mark Meadows.
After days of internal and external snafus as the virus spread through all levels of the White House, President Trump left his hospital suite just before 5:30 p.m. yesterday, and took an SUV ride outside the Walter Reed gates to wave at the supporters who have lined the road ever since he arrived Friday evening.
- Trump wore a mask, but the stunt risked exposing the Secret Service agents in the Suburban.
- Two senior White House staffers said they thought the P.R. stunt was selfish, and compounded a weekend of horrible decisions.
- White House spokesman Judd Deere said: "Appropriate precautions were taken in the execution of this movement to protect the President and all those supporting it, including PPE. The movement was cleared by the medical team as safe to do."
Frustration and anxiety built among White House staffers, who say they went days with no internal communication from Meadows about protocols and procedures — including whether they should show up to work — as COVID tore through the West Wing.
- By contrast, the first lady’s chief of staff, Stephanie Grisham, emailed her staff on Saturday advising them to work from home and reminding them of CDC guidance.
- And the vice president’s chief, Marc Short, emailed his senior staff at 3 a.m. Friday with an update on the president’s situation and urged them to work from home. Short also had a conference call with his staff on Saturday to take questions and explain the protocol and situation.
A senior White House official said it was "ridiculous'" that there had been no proper internal communication from the chief or operations officials since COVID started rapidly infecting their colleagues: "A bunch of us are talking about it and just gonna make the calls on our own."
- The White House finally emailed staff with guidance at 8:18 last night — about 15 minutes after Axios contacted the press shop for a story about the lack of guidance. A senior official insisted the guidance email was "pre-scheduled."
- The impersonal email, signed "White House Management Office," mentioned nothing about the new circumstances, and was almost identical to formulaic emails that had gone out to the staff at previous intervals before POTUS and multiple other West Wing officials got sick.
Several staffers told Axios they were furious with Meadows for leaving much of the staff in the dark, at the same time the White House was sending mixed, incomplete and inaccurate messages to the public.
- West Wing staff were privately circulating an unsparing indictment by Politico’s Tim Alberta, "How Mark Meadows Became the White House’s Unreliable Source."
A senior White House official defended the chief: "Mark is extraordinarily accessible and caring for his staff. White House employees know well what to do in the event of exposure to a positive case, and best practices regarding mitigation. He has been working hard to assist the President, keep the public informed, and manage the most famous employment complex in the world."
- Another senior official added: "Peanut gallery criticism like this is absurd and unfair — guidance has long been in place for what to do in the event of a West Wing case, as it has for best practices, testing, teleworking, etc. Meadows has been at Walter Reed with the President managing a million different logistical concerns since Friday. But apologies if anyone had to wait a couple extra hours to receive their updated email on Sunday."
The White House's public communication about the virus has been a debacle of deception and contradictory information.
- The White House physician, Navy Commander Dr. Sean Conley, admitted at yesterday's briefing that he had painted an overly rosy picture the day before:
On Saturday, after Conley's pep talk, Meadows took reporters aside and gave (at first anonymously) a more worrisome snapshot, saying Trump's "vitals over the last 24 hours were very concerning, and the next 48 hours will be critical."
- Yesterday, another briefer, Dr. Brian Garibaldi, said: "[I]f he continues to look and feel as well as he does today, our hope is that we can plan for a discharge as early as tomorrow."

