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Why Democrats remain nervous about Biden's chances

15 October 2020
 Dan Ackermann

In private, some top Democrats remain nervous about the presidential race, despite Joe Biden's lead in swing state after swing state — and strength in states that had looked out of reach (including Georgia, Ohio and Iowa).

Why it matters: The ghost of 2016, when most "experts" looked foolish, haunts Democrats, who see a big win in their data, but fear being blindsided again.

Tom Edsall, who works the political science beat for New York Times Opinion, is up with a smart piece, "Biden Is Not Out of the Woods."

  • The most interesting data was a massive surge in registration for working-class whites.
  • Edsall quotes a Democratic strategist's privately circulated newsletter as reporting that white, non-college, over-30 registrations in battleground states had recently "increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just six points."

Another key point: Pew Research Center polling shows what Edsall calls "a modest drop in the Democratic margin of support among Hispanic Catholics" and "modestly weakened support among Black women."

  • And, of course, operatives worry about hazards in properly returning mail-in ballots.

🐦 The bottom line ... Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon tweeted last night: "[T]here is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer."

Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times

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Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.

Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.

The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.

  • The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.

What the transcripts say:

  • Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
  • The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
  • Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."

Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.