Cook Political Report moves Arizona from “toss up” to “leans Democratic” in presidential race
17 September 2020
The Cook Political Report on Thursday changed its forecast of Arizona in the presidential race from "toss up" to "lean Democrat," citing new polling data that shows the sun belt state slipping away from President Trump.
Why it matters: The rating in a crucial swing state doesn't bode well for President Trump's re-election chances. He won the state by more than 3 points in 2016.
The state of play: Trump's performance in the state is largely driven by changing attitudes in Maricopa County, surrounding Phoenix, which from which about two-thirds of the state's voters come from, according to Cook.
- "Voters there, as in other suburban areas in and around big metro areas, have soured on Pres. Trump," Cook writes.
- Cook cited FiveThirtyEight's average of recent polls, which has Biden's lead in the state at 5 points.
- Trump is struggling with the all-important Latino vote in the state, garnering just 17% support compared with Joe Biden's 55%, according to a Cook survey out this week.
Worth noting: Two of the Trump's most vocal Republican critics, former Sens. John McCain and Jeff Flake, served in the Senate from Arizona.
- Now, only 73% of Arizona Republicans say will definitely voting for Trump, with 9% saying they are probably or definitely voting for Joe Biden, according to the Cook survey.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.