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Wall Street: Recession is over

U.S. economic activity fell more sharply in the second quarter of this year than during any other quarter in history. It's also going to grow more sharply in the third quarter of this year than during any other quarter in history.

  • The recession is over, according to Wall Street, with current forecasts showing sustained economic growth through 2021 and beyond.

Why it matters: The novel coronavirus is still raging in the U.S., with well over 5,000 Americans still dying every week. But the continued prevalence of the pandemic doesn't seem to have crimped economic growth.

The big picture: America is in bad economic shape, and we've had very little economic stimulus since the federal government's $600 weekly unemployment checks stopped arriving in July.

  • Some 30 million Americans are on the unemployment rolls, entire industries are at a standstill, and economic output remains hundreds of billions of dollars below its pre-pandemic levels.

The other side: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released its official forecast for how the economy is going to fare this year.

  • In June, when coronavirus cases were declining quite quickly, the Fed expected that we would end the year with unemployment at 9.3%, and saw the economy shrinking by 6.5%.
  • Today, with coronavirus deaths still at their June levels, the Fed is much more optimistic. It sees 2020 ending with unemployment at 7.6% and an economy that has shrunk by just 3.7%. That's still terrible, of course, for workers who are out of a job and businesses that are fighting for survival.

By the numbers: The difference is huge — almost 3 million extra jobs, and more than $600 billion in economic activity, over and above what the Fed expected just three months ago.

Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Wall Street has seen a similar turnaround in growth expectations. Quarterly GDP growth is measured on an annualized basis. On that basis, economic forecasters in April expected the third quarter to see a bounceback on the order of 13%.

  • By June, their forecast had improved to 18%. Now, they expect third-quarter GDP to grow at an astonishing 25.2% rate.

Between the lines: The rise in growth forecasts comes in the wake of new data showing surprisingly robust economic activity over the course of the third quarter, which ends next week.

  • It also shows just how difficult it is to make economic projections when there is no real precedent to look to.

The bottom line: "The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus," said the Fed in its most recent statement. But the past couple of months of economic growth have proved that the economy can grow much faster than expected even while the virus still rages.

The coronavirus is starting to crush some hospitals

Some states are seeing dangerous levels of coronavirus hospitalizations, with hospitals warning that they could soon become overwhelmed if no action is taken to slow the spread.

Why it matters: Patients can only receive good care if there's enough care to go around — which is one reason why the death rate was so much higher in the spring, some experts say.

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Scoop: The Lincoln Project is becoming a media business

The Lincoln Project is looking to beef up its media business after the election, sources tell Axios.

Driving the news: The group recently signed with the United Talent Agency (UTA) to help build out Lincoln Media and is weighing offers from different television studios, podcast networks and book publishers.

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Trump, Biden strategies revealed in final ad push

Data: Bully Pulpit Interactive; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

President Trump is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into Facebook ads on the Supreme Court and conservative judges in the final stretch of his campaign, while Joe Biden is spending over a million on voter mobilization, according to an analysis by Axios using data from Bully Pulpit Interactive.

The big picture: Trump's Facebook ad messaging has fluctuated dramatically in conjunction with the news cycle throughout his campaign, while Biden's messaging has been much more consistent, focusing primarily on health care and the economy.

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How NASA and the Space Force might fare under Biden

Joe Biden hasn't gone out of his way to talk about outer space during his presidential campaign. That could be bad news for NASA's exploration ambitions, but good news for the Space Force.

The big picture: NASA faces two threats with any new administration: policy whiplash and budget cuts. In a potential Biden administration, the space agency could get to stay the course on the policy front, while competing with other priorities on the spending side.

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Axios-Ipsos poll: Federal coronavirus response has only gotten worse

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note ±3.3% margin of error for the total sample size; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Americans believe the federal government's handling of the pandemic has gotten significantly worse over time, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

Why it matters: Every other institution measured in Week 29 of our national poll — from state and local governments to people's own employers and area businesses — won positive marks for improving their responses since those panicked early days in March and April.

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Republicans and Democrats react to Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation

President Trump said Judge Amy Coney Barrett's Senate confirmation to the Supreme Court and her subsequent taking of the constitutional oath Monday was a "momentous day," as she she vowed to serve "without any fear or favour."

  • But as Republicans applauded the third conservative justice in four years, many Democrats including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) warned of consequences at the rush to confirm a replacement for the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg ahead of the Nov. 3 election, with progressives leading calls to expand the court.
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CRISPR pioneer: "Science is on the ballot" in 2020

In her three decades in science, Jennifer Doudna said she has seen a gradual erosion of trust in the profession, but the recent Nobel Prize winner told "Axios on HBO" that the institution itself has been under assault from the current administration.

  • "I think science is on the ballot," Doudna said in the interview.

Why it matters: That has manifested itself in everything from how the federal government approaches climate change to the pandemic.

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Ted Cruz doesn't think the Hunter Biden attacks are working

Screenshot: "Axios on HBO"

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz told "Axios on HBO" he doesn't think the Trump campaign's focus on the Biden family's business dealings are having any sway with voters.

The big picture: After watching the Trump-Biden debate with "Axios on HBO" on Thursday night, Cruz said he thought Trump had done very well. But when asked whether he thought voters were moved by the release of the Hunter Biden emails, Cruz replied, "I don't think it moves a single voter."

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