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Nationwide staff shortfalls heightens political risk for upping unemployment benefits

The staff shortfalls Americans are finding as they head to restaurants and summer vacation spots illustrate the risk for Democrats over whether the government's extra $300 per month in enhanced unemployment benefits is to blame.

Why it matters: Twenty-five states — all run by Republican governors — are eliminating some or all of the UI benefits. Some are even offering back-to-work bonuses to further encourage a return to work. Expect the results to become midterm fodder next year.

  • “While these federal programs provided important temporary relief, vaccines and jobs are now in good supply,” said Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican and potential 2024 candidate for president.
  • As of now, most Democratic lawmakers argue there are more factors contributing to the staff shortages — notably child care, especially for women, according to several members of Congress who spoke to Axios.
  • Yet many Democrats are increasingly willing to admit they may have gotten it wrong, and fear the spike in activity this summer will generate a backlash among their constituents.

Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) said he thinks the states rescinding the extra money will serve as a test case for the two parties.

  • "I can't deny that it appears to be having a significant impact, particularly on the hospitality industry," King added. "(The enhanced UI) is helping to support the economy. On the other hand, is it impeding job growth? I don’t know. We’ll have to find out."
  • He added that, as former governor of Maine, he believes states should have "wide discretion to make their own decisions."

Driving the news: Last week, President Biden said he wouldn't seek to extend the UI program beyond September, when it's set to expire. White House press secretary Jen Psaki went a step further, making clear governors “have every right” to “not accept” the extra benefits.

  • Some of the cuts will be offset for eligible families when they begin receiving Child Tax Credit expansion checks on July 15. The checks are worth up to $300 per month for children under 6, and up to $250 for children from age 6 to 17.
  • The White House's comments came despite allied lawmakers like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) imploring the administration to continue providing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits to all eligible workers regardless of governors' mandates.

What they're saying:

  • Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), former governor of Virginia: "We were trying to basically solve a once-in-a-century health pandemic that completely ravaged the economy. I think we did a very good job at it. Was everything calibrated perfectly? I don't know that I'd say that."
  • "I'm not questioning decisions that governors are making about it. I think if there's solid evidence that there's a disincentive, then governors may curb back. But I'm not exactly sure that that evidence is strong and uniform everywhere in the country."
  • Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.):“There are a lot of reasons why some people have been reluctant to come back to work. Not the least of which is ... complicated child care challenges."
  • "These extended benefits were never supposed to be permanent, and if the economy comes back online, it certainly makes sense to pare them back to normal size.”

Reports: Trump DOJ subpoenaed Apple for records of WH counsel Don McGahn

Apple told former Trump administration White House counsel Don McGahn last month that the Department of Justice subpoenaed information about accounts of his in 2018, the New York Times first reported Sunday.

Why it matters: Although it's unclear why the DOJ took the action, such a move against a senior lawyer representing the presidency is highly unusual.

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Pelosi demands Barr and Sessions testify on data subpoenas she says go "beyond Richard Nixon"

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) told CNN Sunday that former Attorneys General William Barr and Jeff Sessions should testify before Congress on reports that the Trump-era Department of Justice seized Democrats' and journalists' data records.

Driving the news: DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz announced Friday an internal investigation into the matter, and Pelosi expressed disbelief to CNN's Dana Brash at assertions that neither Barr nor Sessions knew of probes into lawmakers.

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Shipping giant CEO says business have to avoid global politics

The CEO of the world's largest container-shipping company cautions that international firms have to be careful of taking political stances.

  • What they're saying: "We cannot run a global business if we start to have views on politics in every single country that we are in," Maersk CEO Søren Skou tells "Axios on HBO."
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Chamber of Commerce CEO Suzanne Clark defends overture to Democrats

U.S. Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Suzanne Clark told me on "Axios on HBO" that the business group was right to endorse vulnerable House Democrats last year, despite the flak that resulted from Republicans.

  • Clark, who took over the top job in March, said those House Democrats "had really helped push business's number one priority, which was the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, over the finish line."
  • "All of the Republicans that we work with on tax, on regulation — those people are really, really important to us," she added: "So we have to be willing to have a different coalition on every issue."
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Nuclear watchdog: “Essential” to have deal with Iran

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency tells "Axios on HBO" that it's "essential" to have a nuclear deal with Iran because otherwise "we are flying blind."

Driving the news: Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi sat down with "Axios on HBO" at IAEA headquarters in Vienna, ahead of Iran's June 18 presidential election and a June 24 extension on negotiations seeking to restore curtailed surveillance of Iranian nuclear sites and salvage the 2015 deal.

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U.N. ambassador Thomas-Greenfield sees tough Putin summit

Photo: "Axios on HBO"

Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. ambassador to the U.N., told me on "Axios on HBO" that President Biden will be candid, frank — and tough — during this week's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

  • "The president will make clear to the Russians that they cannot harbor cyber terrorists and criminals in their country and not be held accountable for it," she added. "And they need to take the responsibility for dealing with this issue."
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Dems’ go-it-alone approach faces big hurdles as left’s frustrations spill over

If a bipartisan group of lawmakers fails to strike a deal on the infrastructure proposal it's negotiating with the White House, ramming through a package using the partisan reconciliation process isn't a guaranteed solution.

Why it matters: Getting 51 Democratic votes would be a long, uphill battle. And moderates within the party are balking at the cost of President Biden's spending — even as progressives openly lament that the "transformational" change they seek is slipping out of reach.

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America's U.N. ambassador: "I will always push for women to be part of negotiation teams"

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. ambassador to the U.N., has argued over her 39-year diplomatic career that educating and empowering women and girls is an investment in peace and security for their nations.

  • "I will always push for women to be part of negotiation teams," she told me in the State Department Treaty Room, during an interview for "Axios on HBO."
  • "I notice ... when they're not in the room. ... Sometimes I'm the only one," she added with a laugh. "And I will call it out."
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