The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter shows, in a piece that's well worth your time, that President Trump is trailing "not because he's losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it."
The state of play: Trump has roughly held his share of the vote across all segments of the electorate, but Joe Biden is performing significantly better than Hillary Clinton with nearly every demographic group.
- Walter dug into the most recent national poll from Pew Research Center (ending Aug. 2) and compared it with Pew's post-election poll from 2016, which uses official voting records.
- The article has a nifty tool you can play around with to compare Biden's performance against Trump across key demographic groups to Clinton's performance against Trump in 2016.
- Walter's analysis shows that Biden performs better than Clinton among older voters, younger voters, white voters, college and non-college educated voters, men, women, Democrats, Republicans and independents. Clinton, meanwhile, was slightly stronger with Black and Hispanic voters.
Between the lines: Many of these new votes are coming from people who voted third party in 2016.
- According to Pew, voters who didn't support either major-party candidate in 2016 are breaking decidedly for Biden — 55% to 39%.
- 'This group of non-Trump/non-Clinton voters doesn't get the attention of Obama-Trump voters or suburban moms, but they are a not-insignificant portion of the electorate," Walter writes.
What Trump can do: Cook's David Wasserman earlier this year found "a huge number of non-voting, non-college whites in the Upper Midwest."
- "In other words, there's a large pool of potential voters for Trump to mine in key swing states."