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Cook Political Report moves 20 House races toward Democrats

Cook Political Report on Friday moved its outlook for 20 House races toward Democrats.

Why it matters: President Trump's troubles are spilling over to affect Republicans down the ballot — which could foreshadow a blue wave in November.


  • Dave Wasserman, Cook's House editor, tweeted: "I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction."

The state of play: Republicans need to pick up 18 seats to win the House back in 2020, but the tide is firmly moving against that hope.

  • The changes moved four races from "lean Republican" to "toss up."

The big picture: Trump is notably trailing Joe Biden in the polls — by double digits, in many cases — less than four months before the election.

  • Earlier this month, Cook forecasted that November could bring "a Democratic tsunami than simply a blue wave."

Worth noting: Not every race that moved in Democrats' favor is being labeled as a likely Democratic win, but Wasserman says that those races are "essentially an anti-Trump wave watch list."

Cook's moves (District: incumbent - change in rating) ...

  • Ariz.-02: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) - Likely D to solid D.
  • Calif.-04: Tom McClintock (R) - Solid R to likely R.
  • Calif.-39: Gil Cisneros (D) - Lean D to likely D.
  • Colo.-06: Jason Crow (D) - Likely D to solid D.
  • Ind.-05: Susan Brooks (R), not running - Lean R to toss up.
  • Kan.-02: Steve Watkins (R) - Likely R to lean R.
  • Minn.-01: Jim Hagedorn (R) - Likely R to lean R.
  • Minn.-03: Dean Phillips (D) - Likely D to solid D.
  • Neb.-02: Don Bacon (R) - Lean R to toss up.
  • N.C.-08: Richard Hudson (R) - Likely R to lean R.
  • N.C.-09: Dan Bishop (R) - Solid R to likely R.
  • Ohio-01: Steve Chabot (R) - Lean R to toss up.
  • Ohio-12: Troy Balderson (R) - Solid R to likely R.
  • Penn.-08: Matt Cartwright (D) - Toss up to lean D.
  • Texas-03: Van Taylor (R) - Solid R to likely R.
  • Texas-06: Ron Wright (R) - Solid R to likely R.
  • Texas-21: Chip Roy (R) - Lean R to toss up.
  • Texas-25: Roger Williams (R) - Solid R to likely R.
  • Va.-10: Jennifer Wexton (D) - Likely D to solid D.
  • Wash.-03: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) - Likely R to lean R.

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