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CBO projects economic growth will return to pre-pandemic level this year

U.S. GDP will return to its pre-coronavirus level by mid-2021 — a quicker than expected recovery from the economy's pandemic free-fall,according to new projections by the Congressional Budget office.

Why it matters: The latest estimates from the nonpartisan office paint a rosier — though still not great — path for the U.S. economy.


Data: Congressional Budget Office; Note: Inflation (PCE price index) and GDP estimates show percent change from prior year, Unemployment shows estimated fourth-quarter level; Chart: Axios Visuals

Details: The unemployment rate is estimated to hit 5.3% by year-end — versus the 7.6% the CBO estimated in July. (As of December, the unemployment rate was 6.7%.)

  • Longer-term, the CBO projects that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge will average 1.9% between 2024 and 2031 — slightly below the Fed's 2% inflation target.
  • By a different gauge, the CBO sees inflation averaging 2.2% within that timeframe.

Yes, but: It will still be another three years before there are as many employed Americans as there were before the pandemic hit.

Between the lines: The projections don't factor in the stimulus measures proposed by the Biden White House — and there are questions about whether these rosy forecasts could hurt the administration's case for additional stimulus.

  • The CBO said the $900 billion relief bill signed into law in December would boost the level of real GDP by 1.5% this year and next — though the bulk of the impact will happen in 2021.

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Census reveals a more diverse, urbanized America

The U.S. is older, more diverse, more urbanized and growing slower overall than in past decades, according to data from the 2020 Census released on Thursday.

Why it matters: The decennial Census provides a snapshot of the ever-changing demographics of the U.S. — and sets up the partisan fight over how states will redistribute electoral power for the next decade through redistricting.

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Just how big was the Kaseya ransomware attack?

The July 4 weekend's Kaseya ransomware attack was huge — but while some experts and lawmakers are calling it "the biggest ever" or "largest ransomware attack in history," it's too soon to award that title.

Ranking these incidents is tricky, since the cybersecurity world has no single yardstick for measuring or comparing the size of attacks.

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Outdoor lovers beware: Ticks and poison ivy are on the rise

Americans looking to enjoy their summer outside after a pandemic year now have other threats to worry about.

The big picture: Experts are warning that ticks are on the rise and poison ivy may be more abundant this year. That means hikers, campers and anyone else excited to get outside after months of pandemic confinement should take extra precautions to avoid both.

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