Show an ad over header. AMP

Axios-Ipsos poll: There is no new normal

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The longer the coronavirus pandemic lasts, the further we're moving apart, according to our analysis of nearly four months of data from the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

Why it matters: Ever since life in the U.S. as we knew it came to a screeching halt, we've been trying to get our heads around what a "new normal" will look like. But so far, the politicization of the virus — and our socioeconomic differences — are working against any notion of national unity in impact or response.

The big picture: Partisanship is the main driver of behavior when it comes to concern about the virus, or use of face masks to contain the spread.

  • Race and ethnicity are major predictors both of employment status and whether you know someone who's tested positive for — or died from — the virus.
  • Younger, working-class, Republican men take the pandemic the least seriously, the data shows.

What they're saying: "We know that America has failed to contain the coronavirus pandemic, and we can't get past partisanship," says pollster Chris Jackson, senior vice president for Ipsos Public Affairs.

  • "Looking forward the real question is going to be, does having first-hand experience get people past the partisanship?"

By the numbers: Since March, the overall share of Americans feeling extremely or very concerned about coronavirus climbed, peaked, fell, rose again and settled at 58%. But "overall" belies very different tracks.

  • Democrats who were extremely or very concerned grew from 72% to a peak of 81%, settling in at 77%.
  • Republicans never shared that intensity, and the share of those extremely or very concerned has only declined: from 49% in March, and a 54% peak in April, to 36% by the end of last month.
  • Independents are in between the two parties.
  • Women and 65+ Americans take the threat more seriously than men and younger people.

Employment trends continue to depend heavily on race and ethnicity — but one area where the gap may be narrowing is among those with the ability to work from home.

  • In late March, 14% of white Americans, 22% of Black Americans and 26% of Hispanic Americans were laid off or furloughed because of the virus. By June, only 8% of whites were out of work because of the virus, compared to 15% of Blacks and 12% of Hispanics.
  • By June, 16% of Black survey respondents, 18% of Hispanics and 21% of whites were able to work from home.

Black Americans are being hardest hit by sickness or death from the virus.

  • 46% of Black Americans, 35% of whites and 36% of Hispanics know someone who's tested positive.
  • 28% of Black Americans, 11% of whites and 17% of Hispanics know someone who died from it.

Be smart: Jackson saw a jarring pattern that's become clearer over time: the people least likely to wear masks also are the most likely to be interacting with others.

  • In late June, 47% of our overall sample said they wear a mask sometimes, occasionally or never when outside the home, while 53% said they always were masks outside the home.
  • Those who wear masks less often were about half as likely as the others to see it as risky to return to their pre-COVID-19 life. They were twice as likely to go out to eat.
  • Just 38% of the lax mask wearers practiced social distancing, compared with 62% of those who always wear masks.
  • Six in 10 of the less frequent mask-wearers were visiting family and friends outside their homes, compared with four in 10 who always wear masks.

Methodology: This analysis is from 15 waves of Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index survey data conducted between March 13 and June 29, 2020 by Ipsos using our KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 15,871 general population adults age 18 or older.

  • The data was divided into six phases of the pandemic based on consistent patterns of behavior in each phase. The phases include nationally representative probability samples of between 1,092 and 4,022 general population adults age 18 or older.
  • The margin of sampling error for those phases ranged from ±2 percentage points to -±3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.

How Amy Coney Barrett will make an immediate impact on the Supreme Court

In her first week on the job,Amy Coney Barrett may be deciding which votes to count in the presidential election. By her third week, she’ll be deciding the fate of the Affordable Care Act.

Where it stands: The Senate votes on Barrett’s nomination tomorrow. If she’s confirmed, Chief Justice John Roberts is expected to swear her in at the Supreme Court within hours, an administration official tells Axios.

Keep reading... Show less

Biden team rebuffs Texas Democrats' pleas for more money

The Biden campaign is rebuffing persistent pleas from Texas Democrats to spend at least $10 million in the Lone Star state, several people familiar with the talks tell Axios.

Why it matters: If Texas — which has 38 electoral votes and is steadily getting more blue, but hasn't backed a Democrat for president since 1976 — flipped to the Biden column, it would be game over. But the RealClearPolitics polling average stubbornly hovers at +2.6 for Trump — and Team Biden appears more focused on closer targets.

Keep reading... Show less

Where Trump and his inner circle plan to spend election night

A luxe election-night watch party at the Trump International Hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue is being planned for President Trump's donors, friends and advisers — but Trump's hand in it is minimal because he's "very superstitious" — people familiar with the plans tell Axios.

The big picture: This "mecca for all things MAGA," as one adviser described it, is one of three hubs where they say Trumpworld will watch returns. The others are the war room at campaign HQ in Rosslyn, Virginia, and the White House residence, where Trump and the first lady will gather close family and advisers before heading to the hotel later that night, the sources said.

Keep reading... Show less

Trump plans to fire heads of FBI, CIA and Pentagon if he wins re-election

If President Trump wins re-election,he'll move to immediately fire FBI Director Christopher Wray and also expects to replace CIA Director Gina Haspel and Defense Secretary Mark Esper, two people who've discussed these officials' fates with the president tell Axios.

The big picture: The list of planned replacements is much longer, but these are Trump's priorities, starting with Wray.

Keep reading... Show less

Senate advances Amy Coney Barrett nomination, setting up final confirmation vote

The Senate voted 51-48 on Sunday to advance the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett, setting up a final confirmation vote for Monday.

Why it matters: It's now virtually inevitable that the Senate will vote to confirm President Trump's third Supreme Court nominee before the election, which is just nine days away.

Keep reading... Show less

String of recent scandals show Wall Street is living up to its bad reputation

If you judge a bank by its scandals,recent headlines will have you convinced that Wall Street is hell-bent on living up to all of its stereotypes.

Driving the news: Goldman Sachs,of course, is the biggest and the boldest, paying a total of $6.45 billion in fines and guarantees in the wake of the 1MDB scandal.

Keep reading... Show less

Former FDA commissioner: Pence campaigning after COVID exposure puts others at risk

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb said "the short answer is yes" when asked whether Vice President Mike Pence is putting others at risk by continuing to campaign after several aides tested positive for COVID-19, stressing that the White House needs to be "very explicit about the risks that they're taking."

Why it matters: The New York Times reports that at least five members of Pence's inner circle, including his chief of staff Marc Short and outside adviser Marty Obst, have tested positive for the virus. Pence tested negative on Sunday morning, according to the VP's office, and will continue to travel for the final stretch of the 2020 campaign.

Keep reading... Show less

AOC says it's "extremely important" that Biden offer Bernie Sanders a Cabinet position

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that she believes it's "extremely important" that Joe Biden offer Sen. Bernie Sanders and other progressive leaders Cabinet positions if he's elected president.

The big picture: Ocasio-Cortez was pressed repeatedly on policy differences between her and the more moderate Biden, including her opposition to fracking and support for Medicare for All. She responded that it would be a "privilege" and a "luxury" to be able to lobby a Biden administration on progressive issues, insisting that the focus right now should be on winning the White House.

Keep reading... Show less



Get Goodhumans in your inbox

Most Read

More Stories