Where immigrants will have the most voting power in 2020
21 August 2020
Data: New American Economy; Chart: Axios Visuals
Immigrant voters could be pivotal this fall to election outcomes in some battleground suburbs, according to a new analysis of county-level Census data reviewed by Axios.
Why it matters: Texas, Georgia and Virginia as well as Florida could see swings with statewide or national implications. Congressional races to watch include Texas' 22nd district, Georgia's 7th and California's 39th, 45th, and 48th — reaching into countieswhere immigrants comprise around one in five eligible voters, according to the analysis by New American Economy (NAE).
The big picture: Growing and spreading immigrant populations have helped shift the political landscape in recent years. Foreign-born voters will make up nearly one-tenth of the electorate in 2020 — a record percentage.
Be smart: Not all immigrants vote alike, but growing foreign-born populations are expected to help Democrats amid President Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies.
Between the lines: Immigrant voting power is growing beyond cities to surrounding counties — including some where House seats flipped in 2018, NAE's director of quantitative research Andrew Lim told Axios.
- "I think for many years past it was just regarded as a big city issue," Lim said. "That is clearly no longer the case."
What to watch: Johnson and Polk counties in Iowa are emerging as new immigrant hubs. Immigrants also are moving to less-expected places such as Twin Falls, Idaho (8.5%) and Cass County, North Dakota (6.8%).
- Non-white foreign-born voters are also more likely to turn out to vote than U.S.-born racial and ethnic minorities, according to Pew Research Center.
- But coronavirus restrictions and delays mean more than 300,000 immigrants who would have been eligible to vote in November likely won't be, said pro-immigration group Boundless.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.