22 September 2020
The fight over a new Supreme Court justice will take Washington's partisan bickering to a new level and undermine any chance for needed coronavirus relief measures before November's election, Wall Street analysts say.
What we're hearing: "With the passing of Justice Ginsburg, the level of rhetorical heat has increased, if that seemed even possible," Greg Staples, head of fixed income for the Americas at DWS Group, tells Axios in an email.
- "What little time is left on the Congressional calendar ... will be focused on Trump’s Supreme Court nominee."
- "We now view the chances of a new stimulus package prior to the election to be effectively zero."
Why it matters: In a speech released ahead of his appearance before a congressional committee today, Fed chair Jerome Powell notes consumer spending has recovered about 75% of its decline and only about half of the 22 million jobs lost earlier this year have returned.
- "This reversal of economic fortune has upended many lives and created great uncertainty about the future," Powell writes.
- To provide assistance to many Americans "direct fiscal support may be needed."
Be smart: Further spending from Congress has been baked into Wall Street expectations for months and fund managers now may have to reassess their outlooks.
- "Markets had embedded substantial optimism in early September, with the valuation of the S&P 500 at the highest level in 20 years and sentiment at extreme highs, setting the stage for a natural period of consolidation," says Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.
- "Investors are now struggling to find a positive catalyst, as the prospect for fiscal stimulus fades, economic data begin to reflect rising coronavirus cases and earnings season remains a month away."
What happened: The S&P 500 and a gauge of stock markets around the globe both fell to their lowest levels in about two months Monday.
- Tech shares, seen as less impacted by the direction of the economy, held up much better than economically sensitive sectors, with the Nasdaq down 0.1% on the day and the Russell 2000 small cap index off by 3.4%.
Between the lines: The stimulus matters to the market, but is much more important to the real economy where in addition to reduced jobs and spending, bankruptcies are rising at the fastest pace since 2010 and many small businesses warn they could run out of cash before year end.
The bottom line: "The downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans; those least able to bear the burden have been the most affected," Powell says in the text of his speech.
Go deeper: The price of Washington's stimulus failure
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.