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Trump's collapse among seniors could endanger the entire Republican Party

07 October 2020
Dan Ackermann

Something wild and unexpected unfolded in the second half of President Trump's term, and now is accelerating: Elderly Americans, who helped elect him, have swung sharply against him. 

Why it matters: National and state polls show a total Trump collapse among Americans 65 and older.  If this chasm remains, it could help bring the whole Republican power structure down with Trump.

In what has been a 50-50ish nation, it's stunning to see polling gaps this wide:

  • In a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out Sunday, Joe Biden led Trump by 27 points among seniors (62% to 35%).
  • In a CNN/SSRS poll out yesterday, similar story — 21 points (60% to 39%).

This is a group Trump won by seven points in 2016.

  • The same gap shows up in state polling, including the critical battlegrounds of Florida and Pennsylvania.

The movement predates the virus. CNN polling guru Harry Enten notes that a year ago, Biden was up 11 points over Trump with seniors in a CNN poll.

  • 💡 The main pre-pandemic reasons were health care and his strength with women, Axios' Alexi McCammond and Margaret Talev wrote in May.

Republicans believe the big reason for the current chasm is the coronavirus, which has hit seniors far harder than any age group. A former senior White House official who remains close to the team told Axios:

  • "[A] few of us screamed from the rooftops to them about in March. Who [cares] what anyone else thinks? If you can't win seniors, you can't win."
  • "And, if you don't take something that is killing old people seriously, you will lose seniors."

Between the lines: More women vote than men. More women go to college than men. More women than ever are running for election and winning. And more women than ever are turning on Trump and the GOP.

The bottom line: Younger, white men alone do not a victory make. So the 65+ trend represents a clear and present danger to the vitality and viability of the GOP.

  • Trump has undermined himself with old people, women and minorities.
  • National Journal's Josh Kraushaar tweeted yesterday: "That’s going to be the story of this election: Pivotal Trump voting bloc in 2016 becoming part of the Biden base."

Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times

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Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.

Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.

The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.

  • The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.

What the transcripts say:

  • Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
  • The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
  • Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."

Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.