27 October 2020
Data: Bully Pulpit Interactive; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios
President Trump is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into Facebook ads on the Supreme Court and conservative judges in the final stretch of his campaign, while Joe Biden is spending over a million on voter mobilization, according to an analysis by Axios using data from Bully Pulpit Interactive.
The big picture: Trump's Facebook ad messaging has fluctuated dramatically in conjunction with the news cycle throughout his campaign, while Biden's messaging has been much more consistent, focusing primarily on health care and the economy.
Why it matters: The Trump campaign's revolving door of targeted messaging shows the evolving dynamics of the race, and the campaign’s failure to hone in on one clear message.
- Instead, it's trying to juice turnout before Nov. 3 by throwing money at a series of issues that might rally Trump's base.
- The strategy is echoed in state-level spending. Several campaign officials have told Axios they don't have a clear sense of what strategy will secure 270 electoral votes.
- Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien has been dabbling in spending in Rust Belt battleground states in an effort to preserve multiple paths.
State of play: Last fall and winter, the majority of the Trump campaign's ads targeted the impeachment process and Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
- In the spring, it focused most of its ads on immigration and health care.
- In the early summer, it pivoted its ads to focus more heavily on "fake news" and targeting the media.
- In late August, around the convention, it began to spend heavily around criminal justice and on ads opposing defunding the police.
Biden's side has invested heavily in the past few months on voter mobilization and best voting practices during the pandemic.
Be smart: Facebook ads offer campaigns the unique ability to target potential voters narrowly and in real time. In total, the Trump campaign has spent over $142 million on Facebook ads this year, while the Biden campaign has spent over $89 million.
Flashback: Republicans struggled to deliver a clear, consistent message to voters during the midterm elections, leading to a blue wave in the House and Democratic gains in the Senate.
- Across all congressional races in 2018, health care was overwhelmingly the top issue Democrats referenced in their digital and TV advertising, per Ad Analytics. Republicans' messaging was all over the map.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.
