11 February 2021
Two of the world's foremost central bankers reinforced their positions on the potential for damaging inflation in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic on Wednesday, saying in no uncertain terms that they simply don't see it.
Why it matters: This is exactly what former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned about in his recent op-ed in the Washington Post, citing the potential for "inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation, with consequences for the value of the dollar and financial stability."
What they're saying: "I don’t think we are worrying about reflation and it’s going to be a while before we worry about inflation," European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said in a webcast interview. "If you consider how far we are from our goal…we are very far away."
- "As we look forward, we will probably see an increase in [inflation] readings. That is not going to mean very much. It will not be larger or persistent," Fed chair Jerome Powell said during a separate webcast interview hours later.
What it means: Previous central bank leaders were primordially concerned with the possibility of inflation creeping higher and would raise interest rates at the first sign of price pressures.
- Having examined more than a decade of stubbornly low inflation, Powell and Lagarde — both central bank heads in their first term who are not trained macroeconomists — are turning their backs on the old way.
What he said: The proposed largess of spending "will be manageable if monetary and fiscal policy can be rapidly adjusted to address the problem," Summers wrote.
- "But given the commitments the Fed has made, administration officials’ dismissal of even the possibility of inflation, and the difficulties in mobilizing congressional support for tax increases or spending cuts, there is the risk of inflation expectations rising sharply."
Yes, but: Powell, Lagarde and other central bankers have said that if inflation does arise they have the tools necessary to bring it under control.
Yes, but, but: Given the choice between 1) raising rates to choke off inflation that would send the country into a recession or 2) letting inflation bubble up but keeping rates low to allow asset prices to continue booming and the job market to strengthen, central bankers' comments and actions in recent years have reasonably sowed doubt in critics like Summers that the former path would be pursued over the latter.
The last word: "Stimulus measures of the magnitude contemplated are steps into the unknown," Summers argued.
- "For credibility, they need to be accompanied by clear statements that the consequences will be monitored closely and, if necessary, there will be the capacity and will to adjust policy quickly."
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.
