18 August 2020
Reproduced from Bloomberg via Bank of Russia; Chart: Axios Visuals
Experts are again sounding the alarm that the dollar could lose its role as the world's reserve currency. This is a frequent and historically unconsummated concern — but things may actually be different this time.
What's happening: New data from the Bank of Russia show the country now receives more euros than dollars for its exports to China, with the share of goods purchased in euros rising from 0.3% at the start of 2014 (and just 1.3% in the second quarter of 2018) to nearly 51% at the end of Q1 this year.
- The share of euros Russia receives for exports to the European Union increased to 43% from 38% at the end of last year, the data show.
Why it matters: The euro is the dollar's strongest competitor, making up the second largest percentage of global currency reserves — 20% of central bank holdings versus around 60% for the dollar, according to the IMF.
- Combined with recent efforts by EU policymakers to provide wide-ranging fiscal stimulus and release pan-European bonds, efforts by Russia and China to increase the euro's use could make the continental currency a serious challenger to the dollar.
Flashback: As I wrote last week, more speculators are lining up bullish bets that the euro will rise and that the dollar will fall than at any time in history, according to CFTC data.
Between the lines: A growing chorus of investors, including billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, has worried openly in recent months that the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic — trillions in balance sheet expansion from the Fed and trillions in government spending while still having the world's worst outbreak — is further undercutting the dollar's supremacy.
- Goldman Sachs currency strategists have pointed to the rising value of gold as evidence that the U.S. could be "debasing" its currency and creating “real concerns around the longevity of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.”
- Instead of dollars, many central banks have increased purchases of gold, especially those in China, Russia, India and Turkey in recent years, with 2018 and 2019 the first and second highest years for annual purchases on record.
The big picture: There has been a long-term concerted effort by Russia and China to move the world away from the dollar — this is now aligning with the coronavirus pandemic, the eurozone's unification, and a moment of weakness for the United States.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.
