08 March 2021
The biggest event for markets this week will be Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank's governing council and the press conference following it from ECB president Christine Lagarde.
Why it matters: With interest rates jumping around the globe, investors are looking to central bank heads to see if they will follow the lead of Fed chair Jerome Powell, who says rising rates are nothing to worry about, or Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has drawn a line in the sand on rates.
The big picture: Government bond yields are rising because central bankers say they want inflation, but rising inflation expectations come with higher borrowing costs in a world that already is indebted to the tune of 356% of global GDP with no real plan to reduce its debt load.
The latest: The continuation of the selloff in equities seen on Friday could push policymakers toward a new sense of urgency.
- European stocks, like their U.S. counterparts, have sunk in recent weeks as interest rates have risen at spectacular speed, drawing the attention of central bankers as diverse as Kuroda, the Fed's Lael Brainard, Reserve Bank of Australia's Philip Lowe and Bank of Korea's Lee Ju-yeol in the last two weeks.
What they're saying: Lagarde said in late February that the ECB was “closely monitoring” interest rates, but has not firmly committed to taking action that could include increasing the central bank's bond-buying programs or even lowering its -0.5% interest rate, as other members of the governing council have suggested.
- The majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the ECB to increase emergency asset purchases to counter rising bond yields.
- Stepping up bond purchases or adding to its pandemic emergency purchase program would mark a turn from verbal intervention to market intervention.
Where it stands: The world's leading industrialized central banks — the Fed, BOJ and ECB, which collectively hold around $23 trillion on their balance sheets — are facing a moment of truth.
- With the Fed meeting next week, March 16-17, and markets expecting Powell and company to make no changes to their current policy, the actions of the ECB could set the tone for a new phase of action to tame rapidly rising rates.
Data: Investing.com; Chart: Axios Visuals
The concern from ECB leaders over rising bond yields is especially notable given how much more U.S. government yields have moved higher than their European counterparts this year.
By the numbers: German 10-year government bond yields, the European benchmark, have risen from -0.61% to start the year to -0.30% as of Friday.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have gone from 0.92% to start the year to 1.58% on Friday.
What it means: The increase in U.S. Treasury yields has been more than double that of comparable German bunds and pushed the spread between the two to its most negative in more than a year.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.