30 July 2020
Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals
Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned "lasting damage to the economy" as a worry three separate times during his prepared remarks on Wednesday, and called it a reason to continue providing support through fiscal and monetary policy.
The state of play: But experts say the damage already has been done, even as we're still in the midst of figuring out just how much. The labor market is changing and many who have lost their jobs are unlikely to get them back.
- Specifically, economists worry that many who leave the labor force — especially mothers, older workers, minorities, and many who were outside the labor force and had only recently gotten jobs — will return to the sidelines for good.
Case in point, economist Betsey Stevenson sees a long-simmering child care crisis that could have a significant impact on the number of parents, especially mothers, working over the next 20–30 years.
- “We are letting the whole child care system erode in such a way that it’s not going to be there for us when we are fully ready to go back," she told Politico.
- "You’re seeing child care centers that can’t stay in business. They can’t figure out how to reopen. They can’t keep their employees on staff. They’re letting people go."
Additionally, Black workers are significantly underrepresented in "remote-compatible jobs," and were also especially prone to the “last hired, first fired” trend that has meant Black unemployment rebounds more slowly than white unemployment following recessions, the Dallas Fed noted in a recent blog.
- "The benefit that [Black people] received from the tight labor market in recent years may dissipate as the economy falters."
By the numbers: The U.S. labor force participation rate saw its largest decline ever from February to March and has not recovered much of that ground, even as the unemployment rate has declined.
Between the lines: The Hamilton Project's Wendy Edelberg and Jay Shambaugh warn "widespread bankruptcies could fundamentally change the business landscape," leading to a substantial imbalance between companies and workers.
- "The COVID-19 recession is going to have scarring effects both on the business landscape and labor markets, and policy makers need to be preparing for those effects now," Edelberg told Axios earlier this month.
The big picture: Americans who have lost their jobs are losing hope. In April, 78% of those in households with a job loss assumed it was temporary.
- As of July, 47% think that lost job is definitely or probably not coming back, according to the latest poll from AP.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.
