Poll: 92% of battleground state voters are "extremely motivated to vote"
21 October 2020
91% of likely voters nationally say they are "extremely motivated to vote," including 92% in battleground states Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a Change Research/CNBC Poll.
Why it matters: The 2020 election could see record-breaking levels of voter turnout. Voters last week cast ballots at five times the rate they did at this point in the 2016 election, per the U.S. Elections Project. Over 39 million ballots have been cast in early voting states as of Wednesday.
- Nationally, 53% of Biden voters report say they have already voted, compared to 25% of Trump supporters, the Change Research/CNBC Poll finds.
- 93% of battleground Biden voters say they are "extremely motivated," compared to 94% of Trump voters.
Between the lines, via Axios' Stef Kight: Early voting data signals strong Democratic enthusiasm in key battleground states. But strategists in both parties say Republicans could still overtake that advantage with a surge of in-person turnout on Election Day.
The state of play ... Biden is leading by 10 points nationally and by at least 2 points in every battleground state polled:
- Arizona: Biden 51% to Trump 45%
- Florida: Biden 50% to Trump 45%
- Michigan: Biden 51% to Trump 44%
- North Carolina: Biden 50% to Trump 47%
- Pennsylvania: Biden 49% to Trump 47%
- Wisconsin: Biden 52% to Trump 44%
Of note: 52% of polled voters are very or somewhat concerned that President Trump will not accept the outcome of the election unless he wins — including 63% of white college women and 48% of white working class women.
- Trump has repeatedly refused to say whether he would commit to a peaceful transition of power if he loses the election to Joe Biden.
Methodology: 2,949 likely voters polled by Change Research from Oct. 16-19 across 6 battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.2,711 likely voters were polled from Oct. 17-18 in a companion survey. Margin of error ±1.8% for the battleground and ±1.88% for the national poll.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.