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Mnuchin: We may never know how many jobs PPP loans saved

27 May 2021
Dan Ackermann

Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says that we'll never really know how many jobs, or small businesses, were saved by the Paycheck Protection Program.

Why it matters: The SBA claimed last summer that the pandemic-promoted program, which provided forgivable loans to qualifying small businesses, saved 51 million jobs. Some academic studies put the number much lower, including one from MIT that put the figure closer to 3 million.

What they're saying: "In normal times, economic modeling is a great science," Mnuchin tells me, in a new "Axios Re:Cap" episode about the PPP's creation, controversies and legacy. "In this type of situation, where you literally shut down the economy ... I think these things are very, very hard to model."

  • Mnuchin adds that he believes PPP saved "tens of millions of jobs," based on the number of loans, but acknowledges that economists disagree.

Bigger picture: As I wrote Monday, small business owners I spoke with for the podcast series were unanimous with their gushing over PPP.

  • You can hear some of them at the beginning of the Mnuchin episode, including Frank Olivieri of Pat's Famous Steaks in Philadelphia and Dayna Frank of Minneapolis music club First Ave.
  • We're also seeing lots of PPP recipients get acquired, or even go public (usually via SPAC). Mnuchin, who says he made an early decision on "speed versus perfection," says he "never expected" that more financially comfortable businesses would apply for loans, although admits it was legitimate under the program's language.

State of play: The SBA stopped taking most new PPP applications earlier this month, after exhausting the $284 billion reauthorization from late last year. The only exception are applications from community financial institutions, although that too is set to expire at month's end.

The bottom line: Economists will continue to study PPP, in order to better perfect a playbook for future economic crises (pandemic or otherwise). But it's unlikely that there will ever be consensus on exactly how many jobs this bipartisan bill saved.

Go deeper:Why Biden hit pause on PPP loans for businesses with over 20 employees

Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times

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Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.

Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.

The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.

  • The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.

What the transcripts say:

  • Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
  • The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
  • Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."

Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.