01 April 2021
The bubble didn't burst. That's the main lesson to be drawn from the failures of Greensill and Archegos — headline-grabbing implosions that were certainly bad for Credit Suisse, among others, but that did nothing to slow the broader market's surge to new all-time highs.
The big picture: Speculative financial bubbles tend to be self-fueling. Investors using cheap borrowed money invest in assets that go up in value, generating paper profits that in turn get levered up even further and invested even more aggressively.
- It's a strategy that works until it doesn't. When one or two big lenders or speculators go bust, that can cause the cycle to get thrown into reverse, with credit suddenly tightening sharply and a rush to the exits as investors realize the greater fool is no longer going to appear.
Driving the news: Archegos, a large and highly-levered fund, imploded last week, sending share prices of its stockholdings plunging and causing multi-billion-dollar losses across various banks.
- The Archegos blow-up came on the heels of the bankruptcy of Greensill, a finance house based in London.
- The two collapses were unrelated except for the fact that Credit Suisse seems to have lost billions in both of them, and the fact that neither could have happened without a broader market environment of banks who are happy to lend freely to anybody who seems to be making money.
Background: Greensill stretched the definition of supply-chain finance well past its natural breaking point. Eventually it lost the backing of a key insurer, which meant that it could no longer access markets itself.
- Archegos, similarly, lost the backing of its prime brokers, who exercised their prerogative to sell the fund's holdings. While some of the banks were reportedly willing to try to sell the stock slowly, so as not to perturb the market, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley announced enormous block sales before the market open, precipitating some massive declines.
- The episode is reminiscent of the movie "Margin Call" — except this time, the fire sale didn't cause the broader market to crash. Quite the opposite.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.