08 September 2020
Even after the pullback to end last week, U.S. stock prices are booming and fund managers have largely hitched their wagons to the idea that prices will continue rising for the foreseeable future. But many are hedging their bets, showing bullishness in words much more than in deeds.
What's happening: The vast majority of assets — including currencies, bond prices, commodities and equities — have risen notably in price since the start of the third quarter. It’s a "buy anything" market.
- Still, data from the Investment Company Institute show equity funds have seen net outflows every week for at least the past 10 and for every month of the year, including $62.1 billion of outflows in July.
- Bond funds, conversely, have seen net inflows each of the last 10 weeks and in every month since April, including $98.5 billion in July.
- Money market funds remain near $4.5 trillion in holdings, close to record highs.
Between the lines: Investors are buying call options at historic rates, which give them the right but not the obligation to purchase stocks at a certain price. That means they benefit if prices continue to rise but can avoid losses if they fall.
- Citigroup’s panic/euphoria model — tracking metrics such as options trading, short selling and client note bullishness, instead of stock buying — has reached almost three times the level denoting euphoria and shows the longest run of extreme bullishness since the early 2000s.
Reality check: The U.S. stock market continues to outperform the rest of the world by a wide margin despite the fact that the U.S. has done the worst of all developed economies in handling the virus, in terms of deaths, infections and the ongoing infection rate.
- While improving, the economy remains depressed, with GDP expected to remain below 2019 levels until at least 2022.
- Close to 30 million people remain on unemployment insurance.
- Worse, a fundamental recession is developing within the downturn caused by COVID-19, economists say.
Be smart: U.S. stocks are defying fundamentals too. Earnings on the benchmark S&P 500 outperformed expectations by a record amount in the second quarter, but were still the worst since Q1 2009, down by 32% year over year, and are expected to fall 22% in the third quarter.
Don't sleep: The law requires asset managers to stand behind any public endorsements they have made and many firms can take months to make trades recommended by asset managers.
- That means more money could flow into stocks soon, but also could mean many of the public stances asset managers have taken are months old — a relative eternity in the era of COVID-19, and based on now-outdated information.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.