IEA: Carbon emissions to surge this year as consumption returns from the pandemic
20 April 2021
Data: IEA Global Energy Review 2021; Chart: Axios Visuals
Global energy-related carbon emissions will surge this year as coal, oil and natural gas consumption return from the pandemic that caused an unprecedented emissions decline, the International Energy Agency estimated Tuesday.
Why it matters: The projected rise of nearly 5% would be the largest since the "carbon intensive" recovery from the financial crisis over a decade ago, IEA said, putting emissions just below their 2019 peak.
Threat level: Tragic pandemics are a terrible reason for emissions cuts and they're not a climate policy.
- But IEA head Fatih Birol, in a statement, called the carbon bounce-back a troubling sign.
- "This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the COVID crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate," he said in a statement.
- "Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022," Birol said.
The big picture: IEA sees overall global energy demand rising 4.6% this year, pushing it back above 2019 levels, but varies by region.
Most of the increase comes in emerging markets and developing countries, while energy use in "advanced economies" will be 3% below pre-COVID levels, they estimate.
Yes, but: Knowing the future is hard.
"The pace of global vaccine rollouts, the possible emergence of new variants of the Covid-19 virus, and the size and effectiveness of economic stimulus measures all represent major uncertainties," IEA notes.
Data: IEA Global Energy Review 2021; Chart: Axios Visuals
The chart above shows IEA's projections for changes in CO2 emissions from coal, oil and natural gas.
Driving the news: They see global oil demand rising over 6% this year, but staying below 2019 levels.
- But global coal demand is expected to be higher than 2019 and approach its 2014 worldwide peak, IEA projects.
- IEA sees China, the world's largest coal consumer, accounting for 55% of the 2021 increase in global coal demand.
- They see China's coal demand, which rose slightly last year, at a record high in 2021.
Go deeper:Covid-19 Slashed Carbon Emissions. Now They’re Climbing Again. (Wall Street Journal)
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.