12 March 2021
Data: S&P Global; Chart: Axios Visuals
The fear of missing out (FOMO) is alive and well on all sides of the corporate bond market.
What's happening: Much attention has been paid to the impact that rising interest rates have had on equities. But over in bonds — as U.S. Treasury yields inch higher from record lows — companies are racing to borrow money and avoid being shut out of what could end up be a fleeting opportunity for cheap money.
- While issuers paying investors more for the risk of owning their debt is a welcome change for buyers, portfolio managers' FOMO stems from the idea of committing too early in the cycle and missing out on even higher yielding investments down the line.
Between the lines: An avalanche of deals in the corporate bond market is nothing new. The earlier boom accelerated when a collapse in interest rates created insatiable issuer demand.
- But the last two weeks are now telling a completely different story as the market prepares for a new, more expensive world.
By the numbers: Investment grade issuance already reached more than $95 billion in March, BofA data show. After selling $65 billion of high grade debt just last week, some predictions called for $50 billion more this week, Bloomberg reports (h/t on the FOMO analogy).
High yield: Riskier borrowers are grabbing for cash too.
- Primary high yield issuance last month hit $37.3 billion, just below the $37.5 billion monthly record from 2012. Volume for the first two months of the year combined was $89.2 billion, up 31% from the same period in 2020, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s LCD.
- Among the army of issuers, this week American Airlines priced a massive $10 billion bond and loan deal backed by its frequent-flyer program — representing the largest debt sale ever for an airline.
Yes, but: The stampede may be a temporary phenomenon, BofA credit strategist Hans Mikkelsen says.
- “Investors are afraid of buying. You like higher yields but they don’t want to catch a falling knife if interest rates go up. So there has been some indigestion in the market,” Mikkelsen says.
What to watch: President Biden signed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act yesterday. That stimulus, coupled with continued progress on vaccinations, falling coronavirus infection numbers, and improving economic indicators, adds fuel to the higher rates fire.
- "The economy is going to be on fire and you are going to get economic data beating expectations solidly and there will be upward pressure on interest rates because of that," Mikkelsen adds.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.