28 October 2020
Data: Hamilton Place Strategies, CivicScience; Chart: Axios Visuals
The rise in coronavirus cases in certain parts of the U.S. is stunting confidence across the country, a crop of new reports show.
Driving the news: After stalling during the previous two-week period, overall economic sentiment declined for the first time in two months, according to the Economic Sentiment Index, a biweekly survey from data firm CivicScience and Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS).
- This drop may be the sign of further declines in sentiment to come: over the course of three readings during the 'summer surge' of COVID cases in June and July, economic sentiment dropped 5.1 points," analysts for HPS noted in a release.
- "Leading the declines this week were drops in confidence in the housing market (down 2.8 points) and confidence in the job market (down 2.0 points)."
Similarly, the U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment, which tallies a collection of daily surveys from data analytics firm Morning Consult, showed confidence essentially unchanged from the prior week.
The state of play: "It’s time to acknowledge the new reality: Economic growth in October in the United States has ground to a standstill," says John Leer, an economist for Morning Consult.
- "If the recovery were gaining momentum, a strengthening job market would support consumption growth, but Morning Consult’s data shows persistently weak demand at least for the next month."
- A plateau of consumer confidence is uneventful in a strong economy, but during a downturn it can signal larger problems, analysts note. Households’ personal finances are already weak, and without additional improvements to the economy, consumption is poised to contract.
The bottom line: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index declined in October after a strong September reading, largely because of flagging expectations about the future.
- “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved while expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in the short-term outlook for jobs," Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's senior director of economic indicators, notes in a statement.
- "There is little to suggest that consumers foresee the economy gaining momentum in the final months of 2020, especially with COVID-19 cases on the rise and unemployment still high.”
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.