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Coal is proving quite resilient despite steep declines in some economies

21 July 2021
 Dan Ackermann
Adapted from BloombergNEF; Chart: Axios Visuals

Environment ministers from the G20 face a stark reality as they gather this week in Italy: Coal is proving quite resilient despite steep declines in some economies.

Driving the news: New reports show how coal remains a huge share of the global power mix and the scope of new plants, especially in China.

  • That chart above, via a report from BloombergNEF and Bloomberg Philanthropies, shows projects getting built or planned in the G20.
  • The International Energy Agency's latest power sector analysis projects a big rebound from the pandemic, with coal-fired generation potentially hitting an all-time high in 2022.

Why it matters: Burning coal emits more CO2 than any other fuel source.

  • Choose any energy scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement and it will show fast, steep cuts in coal-fired generation are needed.
  • Just Wednesday morning, BloombergNEF released an analysis of various pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050.
  • They all show "unabated" coal — that is, without carbon-trapping tech that has scarcely been deployed — falling 67%-72% by 2030.

By the numbers: IEA finds that in China, home to over half the world's coal-fired capacity, net capacity grew by 19 gigawatts last year, with another 90 GW under construction.

  • Coal had a nearly 80% share of India's power mix early this year, per IEA.
  • Many big developed countries are moving away from coal, but it's a slower goodbye than envisioned under various net-zero analyses.
  • In the U.S., coal has been declining for well over a decade, but the Energy Information Administration projects it will be 24% of the power mix this year.
  • In the EU, IEA finds coal's share returned to pre-pandemic levels early this year, though the report says its revival is "likely to be short-lived" as countries implement phase-out plans.

What we're watching: How coal may be addressed at the G20 environment ministers' meetings in Naples tomorrow and Friday.

  • "[They] should agree aggressive emissions cuts by 2030, especially those countries yet to upgrade their national plans. There is no room for coal," Rachel Kyte, dean of The Fletcher School at Tufts University, tells Axios via email.
  • "Those still using coal need to outline specific plans for exit at home and abroad," adds Kyte, a former World Bank climate official.

Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times

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Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.

Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.

The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.

  • The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.

What the transcripts say:

  • Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
  • The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
  • Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."

Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.