CBO projects economic growth will return to pre-pandemic level this year
02 February 2021
U.S. GDP will return to its pre-coronavirus level by mid-2021 — a quicker than expected recovery from the economy's pandemic free-fall,according to new projections by the Congressional Budget office.
Why it matters: The latest estimates from the nonpartisan office paint a rosier — though still not great — path for the U.S. economy.
Data: Congressional Budget Office; Note: Inflation (PCE price index) and GDP estimates show percent change from prior year, Unemployment shows estimated fourth-quarter level; Chart: Axios Visuals
Details: The unemployment rate is estimated to hit 5.3% by year-end — versus the 7.6% the CBO estimated in July. (As of December, the unemployment rate was 6.7%.)
- Longer-term, the CBO projects that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge will average 1.9% between 2024 and 2031 — slightly below the Fed's 2% inflation target.
- By a different gauge, the CBO sees inflation averaging 2.2% within that timeframe.
Yes, but: It will still be another three years before there are as many employed Americans as there were before the pandemic hit.
Between the lines: The projections don't factor in the stimulus measures proposed by the Biden White House — and there are questions about whether these rosy forecasts could hurt the administration's case for additional stimulus.
- The CBO said the $900 billion relief bill signed into law in December would boost the level of real GDP by 1.5% this year and next — though the bulk of the impact will happen in 2021.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.