28 May 2021
President Biden is asking Congress to spend $6 trillion next year, as part of a sweeping budget proposal that incorporates some, but not all, of his campaign promises, including the $4 trillion for infrastructure, social and education spending he announced this spring.
The big picture: Presidential budgets are aspirational and rarely survive first contact with Congress, but they help the White House articulate its priorities and amplify its agenda.
- "Where we choose to invest speaks to what we value as a nation," Biden said. "This year’s budget, the first of my presidency, is a statement of values that define our nation at its best.
- Biden’s proposal largely hews to the $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan and his $1.9 trillion American Families Plan, which call for new investments in hard infrastructure, as well as $400 billion for caregivers, extended tax breaks for families and a commitment to provide another four years of free education to all Americans.
Why it matters: Biden’s budget doesn’t shy away from embracing the federal government as a robust force to achieve his stated policy objectives. And he’s clearly comfortable with deficit spending for the next 10 years.
- At the end of Biden’s budget window in 2031, he expects federal spending to increase to $8.2 trillion with annual deficits never dipping below $1.3 trillion, and ending at $1.6 trillion in 2031.
- Total taxes raised will nearly double, from $3.4 trillion in 2021 to $6.6 trillion in 2031, which would be approximately 20% of GDP.
- While deficits would persist, annual deficits as a percentage of GDP will decline, coming down to around 5% of GDP.
- In President Trump’s final year in office, the deficit ran at $4.2 trillion after Congress passed several COVID relief packages and the economy cratered after nationwide lockdowns. Deficit as as a percentage of GDP climbed to 16% in 2020.
The intrigue: While Biden will call on Congress to lower the eligibility for Medicare to age 60, his budget won’t make a specific dollar request for the expansion, a policy proposal that Biden adopted under pressure from Sen. Bernie Sanders.
By the numbers: The budget projects real GDP growth of 5.2% this year and estimates that it will decline to 3.2% in 2022, before leveling off at, or below, 2% for the remaining eight years.
- It predicts an unemployment rate of 4.1% for next year and then 3.8% through 2031.
- Interest payments to service the public debt will rise from 1.6% of GDP in 2020 to 2.9% of GDP in 2031, with publicly held debt around 120% of GDP.
Go deeper: By increasing the corporate tax rate, both at home and abroad, Biden hopes to capture an additional $2 trillion over 10 years.
What we are watching: Biden is proposing a Pentagon budget of $715 billion, a modest increase from this year’s $704, but below the $722 that Trump offered in his final budget.
- It also includes $8.7 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to help prepare for emerging global threats.
- Most of the federal workforce will grow, with the Commerce Department taking a 7.4% decrease next year and the Labor Department expecting a 13.5% increase.
The bottom line: Biden is asking Congress for a lot of money and explaining how he’ll raise taxes to pay for his priorities.
- Now it’s Congress’s turn.
Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times
Section2Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.
Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.
The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.
- The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.
What the transcripts say:
- Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
- The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
- Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."
Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.