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Axios-SurveyMonkey poll: Election fight leaves lasting damage

06 January 2021
Dan Ackermann
Data: Axios/SurveyMonkey survey; Chart: Axios Visuals

Nearly 3 in 4 Democrats say the organized effort in Congress to block certification of Joe Biden's Electoral College win is a threat to America's democracy, while 6 in 10 Republicans say it's a defense of it, according to a new SurveyMonkey poll for Axios.

The big picture: The poll shows how badly Biden has been damaged by two months of baseless allegations of election fraud. Just 58% of Americans accept his win as legitimate, while more than one in four doesn't — and most of those skeptics say they won't buy it even if Congress certifies the results today, as expected.

Why it matters: These findings underscore both the dangers of and the political pressures behind plans by rebel GOP senators and President Trump's loyalists in the House to thwart Biden's certification.

  • Were they successful, the effort would overturn the will of the American voters and upend democracy. It is expected to fail, but not without eroding democratic norms and complicating Biden's appeal to unity.

By the numbers: 27% of the survey's respondents don't accept Biden's win, and 11% aren't sure.

  • Even if Congress certifies the results, 77% of those who don't accept his win say they won't change their minds. Half of those who are unsure said they'd still be unsure.

Be smart: There's a massive partisan split, with 96% of Democrats and 57% of independents saying they accept Biden's win — and 62% of Republicans saying they don't.

Between the lines: Republicans seem to be more supportive of the congressional effort to object to Biden than of Trump's own behavior.

  • 50% of Republicans said Trump's argument that he is the legitimate winner and his refusal to concede represent a defense of democracy.
  • 79% of Democrats, 35% of independents and 10% of Republicans say it's the opposite, a threat to American democracy.

Methodology: This SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted Jan. 4–5, 2021, among a national sample of 2,516 U.S. adults.

  • Respondents for this survey were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day.
  • The modeled error estimate for this survey is ±3.0 percentage points for the national sample. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over.

Transcripts show George Floyd told police "I can't breathe" over 20 times

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Newly released transcripts of bodycam footage from the Minneapolis Police Department show that George Floyd told officers he could not breathe more than 20 times in the moments leading up to his death.

Why it matters: Floyd's killing sparked a national wave of Black Lives Matter protests and an ongoing reckoning over systemic racism in the United States. The transcripts "offer one the most thorough and dramatic accounts" before Floyd's death, The New York Times writes.

The state of play: The transcripts were released as former officer Thomas Lane seeks to have the charges that he aided in Floyd's death thrown out in court, per the Times. He is one of four officers who have been charged.

  • The filings also include a 60-page transcript of an interview with Lane. He said he "felt maybe that something was going on" when asked if he believed that Floyd was having a medical emergency at the time.

What the transcripts say:

  • Floyd told the officers he was claustrophobic as they tried to get him into the squad car.
  • The transcripts also show Floyd saying, "Momma, I love you. Tell my kids I love them. I'm dead."
  • Former officer Derek Chauvin, who had his knee on Floyd's neck for over eight minutes, told Floyd, "Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk."

Read the transcripts via DocumentCloud.